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Lukas Gudmundsson, Lena M. Tallaksen, Kerstin Stahl, Douglas B. Clark, Egon Dumont, Stefan Hagemann, Nathalie Bertrand, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Naota Hanasaki, Frank Voss, and Sujan Koirala

flows ( Q 5 ) than most models. This leads us to caution against the use of a single model in climate impact assessment, which is associated with a high risk of biased conclusions, and rather recommend the use of multimodel ensembles. A principle limitation of this study is the loss of information due to the spatial aggregation in data preprocessing. Possible approaches to gain insights to the spatial patterns of model performance could include the analysis of smaller regions or more “intelligent

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Richard Harding, Martin Best, Eleanor Blyth, Stefan Hagemann, Pavel Kabat, Lena M. Tallaksen, Tanya Warnaars, David Wiberg, Graham P. Weedon, Henny van Lanen, Fulco Ludwig, and Ingjerd Haddeland

distribution of rainfall and evaporative demand in the surrounding landscape (see Lucas-Picher et al. 2011 , this collection). Agriculture and urban development have increased substantially in the past century and will continue to develop in the twenty-first century. Therefore, any assessment of the world’s water resources must take into account both the direct and indirect influences of land use changes and the exploitation of the riverine system. The Water and Global Change (WATCH) special collection of

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Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Aggeliki-Eleni K. Vrohidou, and Ioannis K. Tsanis

institutional framework, giving directions for the common approach and objectives, principals, definitions, and measures for the management of waters in Europe ( Mylopoulos and Kolokytha 2008 ). The central feature of the WFD is the use of river basins as the basic unit for all planning and management actions ( Gaiser et al. 2008 ). This basin-scale approach was adopted for the present study, attempting to improve the information and assessment of drought for the purpose of providing more robust integrated

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D. Gerten, J. Heinke, H. Hoff, H. Biemans, M. Fader, and K. Waha

to put these changes into the context of, for example, global food production given demographic changes in addition to climatic changes. Until recently, most assessments and projections of worldwide water resources ( Vörösmarty et al. 2000 ; Arnell 2004 ; Alcamo et al. 2007 ; Islam et al. 2007 ) were focused on the “blue” water (BW) of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and aquifers. However, it is “green” water (GW)—the precipitation water that infiltrates into the soil (Falkenmark et al. 2009)—that

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Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Jamie Hannaford, Douglas B. Clark, Stefan Hagemann, and Frank Voss

et al. 2000 and Khaliq et al. 2008 , and globally by Dai et al. 2009 ), and through modeling approaches [e.g., European analyses of future flood risk ( Dankers and Feyen 2008 , 2009 ) and global analysis of droughts by Burke et al. 2006 ]. The latter attempts to reproduce observed variability in hydrological characteristics using process-driven models, which can then be used in combination with climate prediction to provide assessments of potential hydrological changes. Wilby et al. (2008

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Kerstin Stahl, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Jens H. Christensen

may also motivate model diagnostics useful for hydrological change assessment. In particular, as models are increasingly expected to provide estimates about changes in the frequency and duration of extreme events, signatures related to these metrics should be developed. The main objective of this study is to introduce a set of exceedance-based indices for benchmarking simulations of hydrological event dynamics. The chosen approach is tailored to hydrological design questions, where events below

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Wai Kwok Wong, Stein Beldring, Torill Engen-Skaugen, Ingjerd Haddeland, and Hege Hisdal

situations occurred in 2006, 2002/03, and 1995/96. Trend studies indicate that summer droughts in southern Norway have become more severe ( Wilson et al. 2010 ), and according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report ( Solomon et al. 2007 ), most atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) project an increased dryness of summer soil moisture across large areas of the northern middle and high latitudes. Summer and winter droughts can be distinguished

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Pete Falloon, Richard Betts, Andrew Wiltshire, Rutger Dankers, Camilla Mathison, Doug McNeall, Paul Bates, and Mark Trigg

) runoff scheme against HadCM3 predictions using TRIP (i.e., effectively comparing unrouted runoff from HadCM3 with TRIP-routed runoff). This has been described by Falloon et al. (2007) —the inclusion of TRIP in HadCM3 considerably improved river flow simulations, particularly for seasonality. 2. Methods and materials a. Climate models The version of the Hadley Centre GCM used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report ( Solomon et al. 2007 ) is HadGEM1

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Stefan Hagemann, Cui Chen, Jan O. Haerter, Jens Heinke, Dieter Gerten, and Claudio Piani

more than any other changes (e.g., with regard to flood risks and changes in water availability and water quality). Consequently, the quantification of these implications is also a major objective of the EU project Water and Global Change (WATCH; ). Simulations of projected components of the hydrological cycle, under a range of GHG forcing scenarios ( Gutowski et al. 2007 ; Boberg et al. 2007 ), are essential tools for strategic freshwater resource management, particularly

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