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Timothy M. Hall and Stephen Jewson

system that allows direct comparison between the models. We find that bias in the track model is more than compensated for on most regional-scale coast segments by the reduction of sampling error compared to the local model. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that the use of basinwide statistical track models has been rigorously justified for use in TC landfall risk assessment. 2. Local model The local model makes predictions of future TC landfall rates on a segment of coastline using only

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Stéphane Hallegatte

–237 . Emanuel , K. , C. DesAutels , C. Holloway , and R. Korty , 2004 : Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 843 – 858 . Emanuel , K. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 . Fankhauser , S. , 1995 : Valuing Climate Change: The Economics of the Greenhouse . Earthscan Publications, 180 pp . Hallegatte , S. , 2006 : A

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D. W. Wanik, E. N. Anagnostou, M. Astitha, B. M. Hartman, G. M. Lackmann, J. Yang, D. Cerrai, J. He, and M. E. B. Frediani

findings and future research directions. 2. Weather data a. Background Within the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) one can find several future emissions scenarios and the associated impact on global average temperature and sea level rise; these scenarios include keeping emissions at constant levels from the year 2000 and subsequent scenarios with increased emissions. In our study, we utilized the A2 emissions scenario, which describes a heterogeneous world with increasing population and carbon

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Manabu Nemoto, Takahiro Hamasaki, Ryoji Sameshima, Etsushi Kumagai, Hiroyuki Ohno, Yasuyuki Wakiyama, Atsushi Maruyama, Shinkichi Goto, and Kiyoshi Ozawa

temperatures and rice cultivar characteristics. Transplanting dates are chosen after the first critical date so that seedlings will survive and to ensure that heading will occur between the early and late limits. This method is intended to use climate resources efficiently in cold areas in Japan, but it is not easy to decide upon the best cropping schedule because of independence among the three risk assessments, and it does not deal with interannual variability in meteorological conditions. In northern

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Bradfield Lyon, Lareef Zubair, Vidhura Ralapanawe, and Zeenas Yahiya

selected meteorological drought indicators and the occurrence of drought relief payments in a tropical setting, using Sri Lanka as a case study. Drought relief payments made in districts across the country by the government over a 41-yr period will be used as a proxy for drought risk. Note at the outset the important distinction between meteorological drought, emphasized in this study, and relative dry periods that occur with seasonal regularity in locations with a strong annual cycle of

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T. Loridan, S. Khare, E. Scherer, M. Dixon, and E. Bellone

1. Introduction Whether it serves disaster adaptation and mitigation organizations or the insurance industry, there is an increasing demand for probabilistic estimates of the potential impact from rare natural catastrophic events. For that purpose, risk assessment systems rely on very large ensembles of model simulations that extrapolate historical records. They are designed to represent extremely long periods of natural hazard activity [e.g., ~(10 4 –10 5 ) yr] to ensure very high return

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Lifeng Luo, Ying Tang, Shiyuan Zhong, Xindi Bian, and Warren E. Heilman

atmospheric dryness and instability can contribute to erratic and extreme fire behavior, thus increasing the risk of losing containment of a fire, which may result in catastrophic damage and property loss. Global climate change may have a significant impact on these factors, thus affecting potential wildfire activity across many parts of the world ( Flannigan et al. 2009 ). For example, Gillett et al. (2004) demonstrated that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on forest fires in

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D. J. Rasmussen, Malte Meinshausen, and Robert E. Kopp

1. Introduction The risk of an adverse event is characterized by its probability and its consequences ( Kaplan and Garrick 1981 ). Risk analysis thus requires consideration of the probabilities and consequences of as full a range of possible outcomes as possible, including “tail risks” that have low probability but high consequence. For assessments of the local and regional risks of climate change, this requirement poses two major challenges. First, ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general

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Derek Chang, Saurabh Amin, and Kerry Emanuel

1. Introduction Hurricanes are a major natural hazard to built infrastructure such as buildings, transportation systems, and electric power networks ( Campbell and Lowry 2012 ; Ouyang 2014 ) and often lead to large socioeconomic losses. A standardized risk assessment procedure is needed to assess the vulnerability of infrastructure systems to hurricanes. Such a procedure becomes especially important in light of projected changes in the frequency of high-intensity hurricanes ( Bender et al

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Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall, Yochanan Kushnir, Patrick A. Harr, and Kyra McCreery

Atlantic TC activity (occurrence, landfall rates, precipitation) and their sensitivity to changes in baseline climate conditions, as part of the evolution of the global climate. However, these models tend to be of low resolution and are expensive to run repeatedly as part of achieving a probabilistic risk assessment ( Vitart et al. 1997 ; Camargo et al. 2005 ). Climate-conditioned statistical models have thus been proposed to predict the properties of an upcoming hurricane season ( Elsner and Jagger

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