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Rowan T. Sutton

climate assessments, especially those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? From the perspective of societal needs—that is, the needs of decision-makers in governments, businesses, or civil society—climate change is a problem in risk assessment 1 and risk management. Therefore, a central question is, What information can science provide to meet these needs? In this article, I want to focus particularly on the contribution of physical climate science, and the community of scientists

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Vasubandhu Misra, Tracy Irani, Lisette Staal, Kevin Morris, Tirusew Asefa, Chris Martinez, and Wendy Graham

population and housing—Population and housing unit counts. U.S. Census Bureau Rep. CPH-2-1, 554 pp., . USGCRP , 2018 : Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States . Vol. II, Fourth National Climate Assessment , D. R. Reidmiller et al., Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 1515 pp., . 10.7930/NCA4.2018 U.S. Water Alliance , 2016 : One water roadmap: The sustainable management of life’s most

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Daniel B. Wright, Constantine Samaras, and Tania Lopez-Cantu

approaches to uncertainty. Scientists are also well positioned to help decision-makers analyze context-specific uncertainties, which could help in identifying appropriate resilience decisions depending on varying risk tolerances associated with different infrastructure systems. Any new analysis paradigm must be low cost and easy to update: given the rates of change in both rainfall extremes and advances in climate modeling, the time between updates should be measured in years rather than decades

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Castle A. Williams and Gina M. Eosco

Message consistency, which emerged within the field of warning communication in the early 1990s (see Mileti and Sorensen 1990 ), remains a critical component of effective risk communication in both research ( Sellnow et al. 2009 , 28–29, 40; Seeger et al. 2018 ) and practice ( AMS 2001 ; NAPA 2013 ; CDC 2014 ; NOAA 2016 ; WHO 2020 ). The challenge, however, is that the current literature does not explicitly define nor explain how practitioners can achieve a consistent message. Further

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Kerry Emanuel, Sai Ravela, Emmanuel Vivant, and Camille Risi
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Kerry Emanuel, Sai Ravela, Emmanuel Vivant, and Camille Risi

Hurricanes are lethal and costly phenomena, and it is therefore of great importance to assess the long-term risk they pose to society. Among the greatest threats are those associated with high winds and related phenomena, such as storm surges. Here we assess the probability that hurricane winds will affect any given point in space by combining an estimate of the probability that a hurricane will pass within some given radius of the point in question with an estimate of the spatial probability density of storm winds.

To assess the probability that storms will pass close enough to a point of interest to affect it, we apply two largely independent techniques for generating large numbers of synthetic hurricane tracks. The first treats each track as a Markov chain, using statistics derived from observed hurricane-track data. The second technique begins by generating a large class of synthetic, time-varying wind fields at 850 and 250 hPa whose variance, covariance, and monthly means match NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and whose kinetic energy follows an ω −3 geostrophic turbulence spectral frequency distribution. Hurricanes are assumed to move with a weighted mean of the 850- and 250-hPa flow plus a “beta drift” correction, after originating at points determined from historical genesis data. The statistical characteristics of tracks generated by these two means are compared.

For a given point in space, many (~104) synthetic tracks are generated that pass within a specified distance of a point of interest, using both track generation methods. For each of these tracks, a deterministic, coupled, numerical simulation of the storm's intensity is carried out, using monthly mean upper-ocean and potential intensity climatologies, together with time-varying vertical wind shear generated from the synthetic time series of 850- and 250-hPa winds, as described above. For the case in which the tracks are generated using the synthetic environmental flow, the tracks and the shear are generated using the same wind fields and are therefore mutually consistent.

The track and intensity data are finally used together with a vortex structure model to construct probability distributions of wind speed at fixed points in space. These are compared to similar estimates based directly on historical hurricane data for two coastal cities.

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William R. L. Anderegg, Elizabeth S. Callaway, Maxwell T. Boykoff, Gary Yohe, and Terr y L. Root

Climate science and assessment sometimes focus too strongly on avoiding false-positive errors, when false-negative errors may be just as important. The concept of risk has been identified as a fundamental framing to the analysis of what to do about anthropogenic climate change, unanimously agreed to by the signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( Pachauri and Reisinger 2007 ; Alley et al. 2007 ; National Research Council 2011 ). Stephen Schneider was

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Xiaogang He, Ming Pan, Zhongwang Wei, Eric F. Wood, and Justin Sheffield

.g., Gleick 2014 ; Maystadt and Ecker 2014 ; Kelley et al. 2015 ; Ghimire et al. 2015 ), although there is as yet no consensus on the causal linkages between these hydrological extremes and their impacts due to the complexity of physical and socioecological systems (e.g., Hajat et al. 2005 ; Adams et al. 2018 ; Mach et al. 2019 ). Nevertheless, these studies highlight the societal value of an improved assessment of drought and flood risk, whose impacts may further increase as a result of climate

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Cynthia Rosenzweig, Radley M. Horton, Daniel A. Bader, Molly E. Brown, Russell DeYoung, Olga Dominguez, Merrilee Fellows, Lawrence Friedl, William Graham, Carlton Hall, Sam Higuchi, Laura Iraci, Gary Jedlovec, Jack Kaye, Max Loewenstein, Thomas Mace, Cristina Milesi, William Patzert, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., and Kim Toufectis

Office (GAO) report, “the climate-related challenges faced by these NASA centers are not unique . . . and can be instructive for other types of large federal facilities.” One example is the joint coastal flood risk shared not only by NASA Langley and adjacent Langley Air Force Base, but also by the largest naval complex in the world, located in nearby Norfolk, Virginia ( GAO 2013 ). Fig. 2. The assessment framework used at the NASA resilience workshops (modified from Rosenzweig and Solecki 2010

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Thomas Knutson, Suzana J. Camargo, Johnny C. L. Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Chang-Hoi Ho, James Kossin, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Masaki Satoh, Masato Sugi, Kevin Walsh, and Liguang Wu

important to avoid is context and audience dependent. If the goal is to advance scientific understanding, an emphasis on avoiding type I errors seems logical. However, for future planning and risk assessment, one may want to reduce type II errors in particular. For example, planners for infrastructure development in coastal regions may want to consider emerging detection/attribution findings—even if not at the 0.05 significance level—in their planning and decision-making. We are motivated in this report

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