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C. Adam Schlosser, Xiang Gao, Kenneth Strzepek, Andrei Sokolov, Chris E. Forest, Sirein Awadalla, and William Farmer

“climate risk,” which impact and adaptation studies must encompass and incorporate in an increasingly quantifiable capacity. To that end, previous assessment exercises have employed spatial disaggregation techniques so that changes in key inputs, such as temperature and precipitation, are provided at the necessary level of spatial detail (e.g., Yohe and Schlesinger 1998 ). Such a class of software tools has been developed over the past two decades to provide modelers with a reduced form method to

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Christopher M. Little, Radley M. Horton, Robert E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, and Stan Yip

1. Introduction Coastal flood risk assessments require the characterization of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in future local sea level (LSL; NPCC2 2013 ; Hinkel et al. 2014 ; Kopp et al. 2014 ). LSL is influenced by atmospheric, oceanic, glaciological, and geological processes ( Stammer et al. 2013 ; Milne et al. 2009 ), and the local signature and time evolution of these processes is expected to vary in the future ( Church et al. 2011 , 2014 ; Kopp et al. 2014 ). However

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Timothy Hall and Emmi Yonekura

1. Introduction Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural phenomena. Estimating the potential for economic damage is a topic of high public interest and cuts across meteorology, climatology, and economics (e.g., Mendelsohn et al. 2012 ; Peduzzi et al. 2012 ). Landfall risk assessments are used by the insurance industry for setting rates and by governments for establishing building regulations and planning emergency procedures. Given the large coastal populations

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Chia-Ying Lee, Michael K. Tippett, Adam H. Sobel, and Suzana J. Camargo

. Meteor. Soc. , 89 , ES10 – ES20 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-89-5-Emanuel . Emanuel , K. A. , 2013 : Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century . Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , 110 , 12 219 – 12 224 , doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110 . Emanuel , K. A. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-87

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Toby R. Ault, Julia E. Cole, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Gregory T. Pederson, and David M. Meko

greenhouse gases (GHG) ( Solomon et al. 2007 ). The risk of future prolonged drought risk will therefore depend on the internal rate at which these events occur as well as any GHG-forced changes in their underlying statistics. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, precipitation is projected to decrease as a consequence of GHG-forced changes (e.g., Seager et al. 2007 ; Solomon et al. 2007 ; Diffenbaugh and Giorgi 2012 ). Any assessment of future megadrought risk, therefore, should account for both the

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Jonghun Kam and Justin Sheffield

climate change ( Seager et al. 2007 ) that may be changing the risk of drought. About 45% of California’s annual precipitation occurs in winter and originates mainly from advected moisture via westerly winds over the extratropical Pacific Ocean ( Gimeno et al. 2012 ). In turn, this is driven by variations in the Pacific, as characterized by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Schonher and Nicholson 1989 ) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO; McCabe et al. 2004 ), and modulated by conditions in

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Erwan Koch, Jonathan Koh, Anthony C. Davison, Chiara Lepore, and Michael K. Tippett

and Roebber 2009 ) and are relevant to rainfall extremes ( Lepore et al. 2015 ), but have not previously been observed over the United States. April and May are important months for PROD, as severe thunderstorms are frequent at this period. The corresponding time slope is positive in regions of the United States where severe thunderstorms are already common, which may have implications for risk assessment and management. Our study also reveals that ENSO can explain variation in the GEV location

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Xiuzhen Li, Wen Zhou, and Yongqin David Chen

developing El Niño, southern and east-central China is subject to surplus rainfall while northern China is vulnerable to rainfall deficits. A vast region of East Asia stretching from southern China to the east of Japan undergoes wet conditions from the mature winter to the decaying spring–early summer ( Wu et al. 2003 ; Wang et al. 2000 ). Other regions experience nearly the opposite risks of drought and flood, as ENSO affects different parts of China in different ways during its life cycle. This study

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Timothy Hall and James F. Booth

.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1101:SPOSEC>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1101:SPOSEC>2.0.CO;2 Eichler , T. , and W. Higgins , 2006 : Climatology and ENSO-related variability of North American extratropical cyclone activity . J. Climate , 19 , 2076 – 2093 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI3725.1 . 10.1175/JCLI3725.1 Emanuel , K. , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach of hurricane risk assessment . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 . 10.1175/BAMS-87

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Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, and Michael K. Tippett

.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0016.1 Emanuel , K. A. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 . 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 Emanuel , K. A. , R. Sundararajan , and J. Williams , 2008 : Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 89 , 347 – 368 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89

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