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Savin S. Chand, Lynda E. Chambers, Mike Waiwai, Philip Malsale, and Elisabeth Thompson

. However, the utility of lay and indigenous forecasting methods in the Pacific Island countries (PICs) remains largely unexamined. In this article we argue that indigenous knowledge of seasonal climate forecasts can form an important participatory strategy for improved decision making, risk management, and disaster prevention in PICs when used together with model-based seasonal forecasts. As such, this article contributes to the growing body of literature that emphasizes the importance of indigenous

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Lynda E. Chambers, Roan D. Plotz, Siosinamele Lui, Faapisa Aiono, Tile Tofaeono, David Hiriasia, Lloyd Tahani, ‘Ofa Fa’anunu, Seluvaia Finaulahi, and Albert Willy

, all original seasonal calendar data requests should be made by contacting corresponding author, Dr. Roan Plotz ( ), and/or the respective author from that country. The results of the literature research on seasonal calendars can be found by examining Table S1 in the online supplemental material. REFERENCES Anderson , C. L. , 2009a : Gendered dimensions of disaster risk management, natural resource management, and climate change adaptation in the Pacific. SPC Women in

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Alison M. Meadow, Daniel B. Ferguson, Zack Guido, Alexandra Horangic, Gigi Owen, and Tamara Wall

University of Arizona and Grant NA11OAR4310150 with the California Nevada Applications Program at the Desert Research Institute. REFERENCES Beebe, J. , 2001 : Rapid Assessment Process. Altamira Press, 224 pp . Beierle, T. C. , 2002 : The quality of stakeholder-based decisions . Risk Anal. , 22 , 739 – 749 , doi: 10.1111/0272-4332.00065 . Bell, S. , Shaw B. , and Boaz A. , 2011 : Real-world approaches to assessing the impact of environmental research on policy . Res. Eval. , 20 , 227

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Oluwatoyin Dare Kolawole, Moseki Ronald Motsholapheko, Barbara Ntombi Ngwenya, Olekae Thakadu, Gagoitseope Mmopelwa, and Donald Letsholo Kgathi

-poor households are likely to experience “double exposure,” which is the interaction of global, political, and economic changes with climatic risks and their effects on households and development opportunities ( Eakin 2005 ). Nonetheless, rural households have always devised local strategies for overcoming various vagaries of weather conditions ( Kolawole et al. 2014 ). For example, in some parts of semiarid India, farming households respond to low yields by using indigenous seeds and crop varieties that are

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Laurie Yung, Nicky Phear, Alayna DuPont, Jess Montag, and Daniel Murphy

2008 ). It has long been recognized that changing weather conditions pose both risks and uncertainties for ranchers (see, e.g., Whitson 1975 ). Because they cannot completely eliminate such risks, ranchers manage and mitigate risk over a period of many years with the assumption that variability in profits and productivity is unavoidable ( Crane et al. 2010 ). And, like other agricultural producers, ranchers experience climate-related changes, such as drought, concurrent to other stressors

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L. Jen Shaffer and Leocadia Naiene

vegetation production and distribution in southern Mozambique ( Rutherford and Westfall 2003 ). Subsistence dependency on domestic and wild vegetation suggests that residents of Matutúine District would be keenly aware of any climate and climate-associated environmental changes affecting their survival. In light of projected impacts to food security and disaster risk for this region, specific details about how populations have been, and expect to be, affected by climate change are important for planning

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Shannon M. McNeeley

connections to the land, and are long-time observers of weather, climate, and the interconnections to the living and nonliving landscapes ( McNeeley 2009 ; McNeeley and Shulski 2011 ; Fox 2002 ). As such, more attention is being given to the emerging literature on indigenous peoples and climate change inside the United States. For the first time since the start of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) in the 1990s, the third NCA in 2014 had a chapter dedicated to indigenous peoples and climate

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Daniel B. Ferguson, Anna Masayesva, Alison M. Meadow, and Michael A. Crimmins

overview and outlook . Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. , 4 , 51 – 58 , doi: 10.1007/s13753-013-0006-x . Gershunov, A. , and Coauthors , 2013 : Future climate: Projected extremes. Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States , G. Garfin et al., Eds., Island Press, 126–147 . Hayes, M. , Svoboda M. , Wall N. , and Widhalm M. , 2011 : The Lincoln Declaration on drought indices: Universal meteorological drought index recommended . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 92 , 485 – 488 , doi

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Mathew Alexander Stiller-Reeve, David B. Stephenson, and Thomas Spengler

how 289 undergraduate students interpreted uncertainty in forecasts. The triangular distribution is favorable, as it is simple and has been widely used in expert elicitation in risk analysis ( Johnson 1997 ) and project management scenarios ( Back et al. 2000 ; Briand et al. 2000 ; Galway 2007 ). Here, we consider the Bangladeshi people as experts regarding the timing of the monsoon in their local area. The respondents gave us answers for the earliest , the normal , and the latest monsoon

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Valeria Hernandez, Vincent Moron, Florencia Fossa Riglos, and Eugenia Muzi

according to different soils and land uses ( Slegers 2008 ). In Senegal, Mertz et al. (2009) found that farmers did not assign climate factors as the main reason for livelihood change. Nevertheless, they identified strong winds and occasional excessive rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Similarly, in central-south Senegal, Tschakert (2007) showed that climate also did not directly appear in people’s risk assessments. In contrast, Thomas et al. (2007) demonstrated that trends and

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