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Andreas Schäfler, Andreas Dörnbrack, Christoph Kiemle, Stephan Rahm, and Martin Wirth

model and observational data. At altitudes with data coverage larger than ≈50%, the experimentally determined mean transport represented the modeled value with high accuracy for this specific case. Most impressively, the flow in the warm sector as represented by enhanced water vapor transport as shown in Figs. 7 and 9 resembles an “atmospheric river” [see the conceptual model by Ralph et al. (2004) ; their Fig. 23]. Therefore, the moisture transport observation in Fig. 7 was suitable for

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Yannick Barton, Paraskevi Giannakaki, Harald von Waldow, Clément Chevalier, Stephan Pfahl, and Olivia Martius

1. Introduction Regional-scale extreme precipitation events in the mountainous terrain of the Alpine region can have severe impacts on human populations and the environment ( Frei et al. 2000 ). They can trigger floods, which are the main natural hazard in terms of financial damage in Switzerland ( Hilker et al. 2009 ). The potential damage of these regional-scale extreme precipitation events can be substantial because they can affect the entire watershed of a river or a lake. For example, in

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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

moves poleward and starts to interact with the midlatitude flow ( Fig. 1a ). This results in the formation of a jet streak ( Fig. 1b ) and a poleward deflection of the jet near the transitioning cyclone in conjunction with the development of a ridge–trough couplet ( Fig. 1b ). At the same time, a region of enhanced moisture flux—a so-called atmospheric river ( Zhu and Newell 1998 )—forms ahead of the downstream trough. The ridge–trough couplet continues to amplify, a new cyclone develops farther

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Christian M. Grams and Heather M. Archambault

other than the TC itself to the downstream impact remains unclear and is subject of ongoing work. The study also shows the important role of moisture transport on the eastern flank of the recurving TC (and in the monsoon trough in the no-TC simulation) and ahead of the downstream trough. Similar to the detailed study by Cordeira et al. (2013) , this moisture transport has characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs; Newell et al. 1992 ) or tropical moisture exports (TMEs; Knippertz et al. 2013

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

example for the downscale connection between an upper-tropospheric RWP and severe weather is the heavy rain event over central Europe in August 2002 ( Shapiro and Thorpe 2004 ), which led to devastating flooding of the Elbe River ( Ulbrich et al. 2003a , b ). In this case, the associated RWP formed some 10 days before the rain event far upstream over the western Pacific Ocean. Hovmöller diagrams indicate a steady eastward progression of this RWP during its lifetime ( Glatt and Wirth 2014 ). Rossby

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

central Europe was associated with a long-lived precursor RWP ( Fig. 2c ); that low pressure system brought heavy precipitation in parts of Europe resulting in catastrophic flooding of the river Elbe. The forecast of this event was rather poor as little as a few days ahead of time. Each stage of the RWP life cycle may be subject to forecast errors, and it is important to obtain a better understanding of what stages and which processes contribute most strongly to poor forecasts. In particular, the role

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