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  • Integrated Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change in Selected Basins across the United States x
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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

Flint River basin, Georgia, was originally modeled as part of the Upper Flint River Science Thrust of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), part of a federally funded program to address key national science priorities, including landslide and debris flows, fire science, integrated landscape monitoring, and water availability. The purpose of the Upper Flint River Science Thrust is to “advance the science needed to specify the hydrologic conditions necessary to support flowing-water ecosystems. This

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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

: the East River at Almont, Colorado, and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, Colorado ( Figure 1 ). The basins are mountainous, and their streamflows are strongly dependent on the formation of a snowpack in the winter months and the timing of snowmelt in spring and summer. In many ways, these basins are representative of other snowmelt-dominated, high-elevation basins in Colorado that supply much of the water to downstream users. Projected increases in population within these two basins are

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

, with western Canada and coastal Alaska showing the most change ( Stewart et al. 2005 ; Stewart 2009 ). Recent studies in the northeastern United States have demonstrated strong and consistent evidence of hydrologic changes over the last 30–150 years that is consistent with warming winter–spring air temperatures, including significant changes toward earlier winter/spring snowmelt runoff, decreasing duration of ice on rivers and lakes, decreasing ratio of snowfall to total precipitation, and denser

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

1. Introduction Knowledge of historical and future hydrologic trends is needed to develop and evaluate regional water-management strategies. In New England, the amount of groundwater discharge to streams and rivers (base flow), the amount of snow, and the timing of snowmelt are especially important factors for evaluating, managing, and planning for the health of in-stream habitat and recreation. This knowledge needs to include patterns of hydrologic change in both time and space. Regional

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Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

uncertainty associated with the choice of baseline conditions in the change-factor downscaling procedure. The Almanor Catchment of the North Fork of the Feather River, California ( Figure 1 ), was selected from the 14 basins used by Hay et al. ( Hay et al. 2011 ). The hydrology of the Almanor Catchment is influenced by the phases of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) (see Koczot et al. 2005 ), which is a multidecadal temperature pattern that has been identified in the surface-water temperature of the

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P. C. D. Milly and Krista A. Dunne

recourse to an explicit definition of potential evapotranspiration, and do not rely on empirical relations among atmospheric variables, because all of the relevant variables are computed on the basis of dynamic interactions within the model. Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS; Hay et al. 2010 ) computed sensitivities of 14 river basins in the United States to scenarios of future climate change. The study followed the hydrologic-adjustment strategy described above and used the Precipitation

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

1. Introduction Findings from Bernstein et al. ( Bernstein et al. 2007 ) describe how climate change resulting from increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere will cause spatial and temporal alterations in the distribution of water resources in river drainage basins during the twenty-first century. To analyze potential shifts in water resources, climate output from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been input to hydrologic models that are used to simulate

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

United States” was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 ( Markstrom et al. 2010 ). The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate-change studies across the nation. Fourteen river basins for which Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Markstrom et al. 2010 ) models previously had been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites ( Figure 1 ; Table 1 ). PRMS is a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

1989–99) for all basins are summarized in Figure 3 . For evaluation purposes, the measured and PRMS-simulated mean monthly SR, PET, and streamflow values for baseline conditions are shown in Figure 4 . The measured values (when available) are shown in red, and the PRMS-simulated values are shown in black. The Feather River basin does not have measured streamflow at the outlet of the basin: measured and simulated streamflow are shown for the Middle Fork basin, one of the interior gauges used for

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Daniel E. Christiansen, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

. Tamayo , 2010 : Estimation of the effects of land-use and groundwater withdrawals on groundwater recharge and streamflow using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed model and the Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW) for the Pomperaug River, Connecticut . U. S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Rep. 2010-5114, 77 pp . Brinkman , W. A. R. , 1979 : Growing season length as an indicator of climatic variations . Climatic Change , 2 , 127 – 138 . Carroll , A. L

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