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Shahrbanou Madadgar and Hamid Moradkhani

probabilistic modeling of various hydrologic phenomena over the past few years, including flood analyses (e.g., Favre et al. 2004 ; Zhang and Singh 2007a ; Salvadori and De Michele 2010 ), rainfall analyses ( Zhang and Singh 2007b ; Salvadori and De Michele 2006 ; Kao and Govindaraju 2008 ), spatial analysis of groundwater quality parameters ( Bárdossy 2006 ; Bárdossy and Li 2008 ), synthesizing and downscaling of monthly river flow ( Li et al. 2013 ), and low-flow/drought analyses ( Shiau 2006

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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Jiangfeng Wei, Michael G. Bosilovich, and David M. Mocko

) performed a global study of evaporative sources of precipitation using tracers in a global atmospheric model. Stohl and James (2004) used a dispersion model driven by reanalyses to examine a case study of moisture transport over Europe and a 1-yr global assessment. Stohl and James (2005) applied the method to diagnose oceanic moisture sources to major river basins. A variation on the tracer approach is to use stable water isotopes as the markers, a method that has been applied in both observational

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Sujay V. Kumar, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David Mocko, Rolf Reichle, Yuqiong Liu, Kristi R. Arsenault, Youlong Xia, Michael Ek, George Riggs, Ben Livneh, and Michael Cosh

) projects. This model routes the modeled runoff from each interior grid cell to the basin outlet using a flow direction mask ( Lohmann et al. 2004 ). The routing model computes the timing of the runoff at the grid outlet and the water transport through the river network. Using a linearized version of the Saint-Venant equation, both within-grid-cell and river-routing contributions are represented with causal functions with nonnegative impulse response characteristics ( Lohmann et al. 1996 ). The water

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Bart Nijssen, Shraddhanand Shukla, Chiyu Lin, Huilin Gao, Tian Zhou, Ishottama, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

, 044037 , doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044037 . Anderson, E. A. , 1973 : National Weather Service River Forecast System—Snow accumulation and ablation model. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS HYDRO-17, 87 pp. [Available online at ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wntsc/H&H/snow/AndersonHYDRO17.pdf .] Andreadis, K. M. , and Lettenmaier D. P. , 2006 : Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 33 , L10403 , doi: 10.1029/2006GL025711 . Bohn, T. J. , Livneh B

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Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

drought intensified quickly ( Fig. 1 ). By May, Georgia and Alabama were in the D3–D4 category ( Fig. 2q ). The concurrence maps indicate that 90% of indices were in D2 ( Fig. 2g ) or higher, and 70% of indices were in the D3 and D4 categories at the center of drought. In summer, the lack of rainfall from tropical storms intensified the drought, which expanded northward to the Ohio Valley and northeastward to the Carolinas. The drought lowered rivers in Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina to the

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Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jason Otkin, Xiwu Zhan, Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, and Agustin Pimstein

various indices are characterized by significantly different patterns of variability. All indicate Texas as highly variable because of the strong drought events (in 2006 and 2011) and wetter conditions (2007) that occurred over the 2000–11 timeframe. Among NLDAS ET output, ET MO stands apart as having very different variability patterns, particularly along the lower Mississippi River basin where the standard deviation is high. In contrast ALEXI indices f PM , f PT , f EF , and f 0 show

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Eric F. Wood, Siegfried D. Schubert, Andrew W. Wood, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kingtse C. Mo, Annarita Mariotti, and Roger S. Pulwarty

to improve objective analyses that contribute to a consistent, accurate, and reliable determination and quantification of drought—including, for example, assessments of soil moisture, river discharge, temperature anomalies, and depiction of vegetation health. Additionally, by carrying out objective historical reanalyses, a climatology for drought variables such as precipitation or soil moisture can be developed that aids in depicting current conditions within a risk framework. Finally, objective

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Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, and Mark Svoboda

the south-central United States at the beginning of spring (not shown). Rainfall was highly variable across the region during April and May, with some areas receiving copious amounts of rainfall, whereas others remained drier than normal, especially along the Gulf Coast and in western Texas. Several episodes of intense, persistent thunderstorm activity produced extremely heavy rainfall across a broad region extending from eastern Oklahoma to the Ohio River Valley, eliminating drought conditions

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Jiarui Dong, Mike Ek, Dorothy Hall, Christa Peters-Lidard, Brian Cosgrove, Jeff Miller, George Riggs, and Youlong Xia

, 181 – 194 , doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00095-0 . Klein, A. G. , and Barnett A. C. , 2003 : Validation of daily MODIS snow cover maps of the upper Rio Grande river basin for the 2000–2001 snow year . Remote Sens. Environ. , 86 , 162 – 176 , doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00097-X . Liston, G. E. , Pielke R. A. Sr. , and Greene E. M. , 1999 : Improving first-order snow-related deficiencies in a regional climate model . J. Geophys. Res. , 104 , 19 559 – 19 567 , doi:10.1029/1999JD

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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez

. , and Trimble P. J. , 2001 : The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 28 , 2077 – 2080 , doi: 10.1029/2000GL012745 . Ferguson, I. M. , Dracup J. A. , Duffy P. B. , Pegion P. , and Schubert S. , 2010 : Influence of SST forcing on stochastic characteristics of simulated precipitation and drought . J. Hydrometeor. , 11 , 754 – 769 , doi: 10.1175/2009JHM1132.1 . Griffies, S. M. , and

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