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Siri Veland

geomorphology of climatic change in northern Australia, as distinct from water in the Aboriginal Land Rights (Northern Territory) Act of 1976, as a polygon on a cadastral map of Papua New Guinea mining leases, as solid ice in Norwegian ice edge jurisdictions, and as a dynamic element of loose conglomerate permafrost, ice, and sea on the Alaskan North Slope. The concern of each case is the Giddensian ontological security assumed by decision-makers, local residents, and researchers as they seek to weave their

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Lawrence C. Hamilton

results. Slightly more than half the respondents believe that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Around 70% know that Arctic sea ice covers less area than it did 30 years ago. Just over 60% know that carbon dioxide concentration is rising, and 55% correctly identify the meaning of “greenhouse effect.” Two more difficult questions about volcanoes and sea level, from the most recent New Hampshire survey, draw pluralities of “don’t know” responses. Figure 1 charts the

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K. Kvale, K. Zickfeld, T. Bruckner, K. J. Meissner, K. Tanaka, and A. J. Weaver

, general consensus suggests that common definitions of danger include singular events with irreversible and widespread consequences that have been referred to as “tipping points” in the recent literature ( Lenton et al. 2007 ; e.g., collapse of the thermohaline circulation, disintegration of one or both polar ice sheets) and lasting conditions with broad ecological and economic impacts (e.g., widespread and frequent coral reef bleaching, rapid sea level rise, increased frequency of extreme weather

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Ross N. Hoffman, Peter Dailey, Susanna Hopsch, Rui M. Ponte, Katherine Quinn, Emma M. Hill, and Brian Zachry

, depending on the different models and scenarios used. A full account of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics would lead to larger spreads. Similar IPCC projections on a regional basis yield differences mostly around ±0.2 m in local sea level rates arising solely from density and circulation changes. Spatial patterns are, nevertheless, very uncertain, as judged by the disagreement among various models ( Solomon et al. 2007 , Fig. 10.32), and are expected to be even more uncertain on the shorter (decadal

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Dana R. N. Brown, Todd J. Brinkman, David L. Verbyla, Caroline L. Brown, Helen S. Cold, and Teresa N. Hollingsworth

river ice breakup and freeze-up that have important consequences for subsistence practices and adaptations of rural subsistence communities as the climate warms. 2. Methods a. Study area The Yukon River, ~3200 km in length, flows from northwestern Canada through interior Alaska and into the Bering Sea, draining ~850 000 km 2 ( Fig. 1 ; Brabets et al. 2000 ). The Tanana River is one of two major tributaries to the Yukon River that is glacier fed. Most streamflow occurs in summer from snowmelt

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Alan K. Betts

1. Introduction The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, coming primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is the likely driver of rapid climate change in recent decades ( Pachauri and Reisinger 2007 ). However, there are considerable uncertainties in future regional climate scenarios. In addition, global indicators of ongoing climate change, such as the melting of the Arctic sea ice in recent decades ( http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ ), are remote to most communities, and they are not

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Yosuke Adachi

will be at risk each year from 2011 on. A summation of these at-risk lives due to SLR for all years between 2011 and 2100 suggests that 84 (139) of the lives lost to TCs by the end of 2100 will be due to extra coastal flooding caused by SLR if coastal communities do not adapt. These are deaths that may occur in addition to the deaths that occur because of coastal flooding by TCs without the effect of SLR. Enhanced dynamic ice discharge from polar ice sheets may lead to larger rises in sea level [e

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Michael Paolisso, Ellen Douglas, Ashley Enrici, Paul Kirshen, Chris Watson, and Matthias Ruth

their focus and direction—and rather dire in their predictions ( Najjar et al. 2010 ). In particular, the phenomena of sea level rise and associated changes—erosion, flooding, and inundation—are very important for the Chesapeake Bay region. Accounting for only thermal expansion and ice melt, sea level rise projections range from 0.8 to 2 m ( Pfeffer et al. 2008 ; Katsman et al. 2008 ; Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009 ). A recent state-of-the-science review for climate change in the bay estimates that in

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Matthew Berman and Jennifer I. Schmidt

levels, thawing permafrost, reduced sea ice, and fall storms are well known ( Alessa et al. 2008 ; Hong et al. 2014 ; Raynolds et al. 2014 ; White et al. 2007 ). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers identified erosion threats to 31 communities, including seven (Bethel, Dillingham, Kaktovik, Kivalina, Newtok, Shishmaref, and Unalakleet) requiring partial or complete relocation ( USACE 2009 ). The Corps projected that Kivalina, Newtok, and Shishmaref may start losing critical infrastructure to erosion

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Henry J. F. Penn, S. Craig Gerlach, and Philip A. Loring

sea ice; and growing season length ( Markon et al. 2012 ). The frequency, intensity, and seasonality of marine storms are also increasing, and these bring both heavy waves and water level surges that can worsen coastal erosion ( Atkinson et al. 2011 ). Land cover changes are also occurring, including permafrost thaw, expansion of shrubs in the tundra, and a northward and westward drift of the arctic tree line ( Markon et al. 2012 ). Along with other impacts, continuation of these trends could

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