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Christian Barthlott and Corinna Hoose

( Rosenfeld et al. 2008 ). The larger water load at the freezing level results in an additional release of latent heat, leading to an invigoration of convection with additional rainfall. Even in absence of such a thermodynamic invigoration, Fan et al. (2013) found that aerosol’s microphysical effects can lead to a dramatic increase in cloud cover, cloud-top height, and cloud thickness at the mature and dissipation stages by inducing larger amounts of smaller but longer-lasting ice particles in the

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Tobias Selz

the use of a metric like continuous ranked probability score and tests against a calibrated model climate distribution are beyond our computing capacities. We further note that this study refers to instantaneous gridpoint fields and to atmospheric turbulence only. Other Earth system components like the ocean, the stratosphere, the ground, or sea ice can enhance predictability and may lead to skillful predictions beyond the limit estimated here. Such enhancements of predictability can however

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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 137 , 553 – 597 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828 . 10.1002/qj.828 Dreiseitl , S. , and L. Ohno-Machado , 2002 : Logistic regression and artificial neural network classification models: A methodology review . J. Biomed. Inform. , 35 , 352 – 359 , https://doi.org/10.1016/S1532-0464(03)00034-0 . 10.1016/S1532-0464(03)00034-0 Drobot , S. D. , and J. A. Maslanik , 2002 : A practical method for long-range forecasting of ice severity in the Beaufort Sea . Geophys

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