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John G. Dwyer, Michela Biasutti, and Adam H. Sobel

and Sobel 2009 ; Sobel and Camargo 2011 ; Seth et al. 2011 ; Dwyer et al. 2012 ). Models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012 ) show changes of the same sign, as we discuss in section 3 and as documented elsewhere ( Biasutti 2013 ; Seth et al. 2013 ; Huang et al. 2013 ). These CMIP3 and CMIP5 studies suggest a variety of causes to explain the projected changes in the annual cycle, including high-latitude phase delays due to reduced sea ice affecting the tropics; changes in the

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Zewdu T. Segele, Michael B. Richman, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

. A. , D. E. Parker , E. B. Horton , C. K. Folland , L. V. Alexander , D. P. Rowell , E. C. Kent , and A. Kaplan , 2003 : Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407 , doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 . Riddle , E. E. , and K. H. Cook , 2008 : Abrupt rainfall transitions over the Greater Horn of Africa: Observations and regional model simulations . J. Geophys. Res

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Lisa Hannak, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anke Kniffka, and Gregor Pante

). Here we use 20-yr climate simulations covering the period 1991–2010. All models use weekly SSTs and sea ice concentrations based on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation V2 product ( Reynolds et al. 2002 ) as lower boundary conditions and prescribed aerosols. Despite different native resolutions, output was archived every 6 h on a standard horizontal (2.5° × 2.5°) grid with 22 vertical pressure levels (nine below 700 hPa). Unfortunately only eight of the YoTC models provide all the output necessary for

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