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Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Elsa Mohino, Carlos R. Mechoso, Cyril Caminade, Michela Biasutti, Marco Gaetani, J. Garcia-Serrano, Edward K. Vizy, Kerry Cook, Yongkang Xue, Irene Polo, Teresa Losada, Leonard Druyan, Bernard Fontaine, Juergen Bader, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Lisa Goddard, Serge Janicot, Alberto Arribas, William Lau, Andrew Colman, M. Vellinga, David P. Rowell, Fred Kucharski, and Aurore Voldoire

: Mid-century effects of climate change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario . Int. J. Climatol. , 33 , 881 – 896 , doi: 10.1002/joc.3476 . Murphy , J. , and Coauthors , 2010 : Towards prediction of decadal climate variability and change . Procedia Environ. Sci. , 1 , 287 – 304 , doi: 10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.018 . Ndiaye , O. , W. M. Neil , and W. M. Thiaw , 2011 : Predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall using GCMs and lead-time improvements through the

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Lixia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou

1997 ( Zhang et al. 2009 ). Besides north China, southwestern China has also experienced a severe drought lasting from autumn 2009 to spring 2010, during which time approximately 21 million people were short of drinking water and economic losses reached nearly USD 30 billion ( Yang et al. 2012 ). According to statistics, droughts in China cause grain losses of 20–25 × 10 9 kg, which effects 200–300 million people, and economic losses of CNY 15–20 billion every year ( Zhang et al. 2008 ). Since the

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Ronald E. Stewart, Hailan Wang, Mathew Barlow, Ernesto H. Berbery, Wenju Cai, Martin P. Hoerling, Krishna K. Kanikicharla, Randal D. Koster, Bradfield Lyon, Annarita Mariotti, Carlos R. Mechoso, Omar V. Müller, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Richard Seager, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Lixia Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou

and large-scale SST and atmospheric circulation patterns associated with meteorological drought in East Africa on seasonal and longer time scales. Analysis of drought in the region is complicated by local rainfall regimes that generally consist of unimodal (JJA and DJF maxima) and bimodal (MAM and OND maxima) annual cycles. On seasonal-to-interannual time scales, ENSO is the largest source of seasonal rainfall variations, but depending on season and location, it has opposite effects: La Niña is

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Bradfield Lyon

deleterious consequences it is not surprising that across the Greater Horn, where rain-fed agriculture is the mainstay, where food security is often threatened ( Funk et al. 2008 ; Funk and Brown 2009 ), and where the largest contribution to electricity generation is hydropower ( Kaunda et al. 2012 ), that drought information is especially valued. Nor is the interest in drought information limited to assessments of current conditions or the provision of seasonal forecasts. Seemingly contradictory signals

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Omar V. Müller, Ernesto Hugo Berbery, Domingo Alcaraz-Segura, and Michael B. Ek

changes in land cover may have a limited representation of the land surface–atmosphere feedbacks and consequently on their effects on the regional climate. South America is a region where climate models tend to have difficulties to properly reproduce the patterns and magnitude of precipitation (e.g., Silvestri and Vera 2008 ; Solman et al. 2008 ; Rusticucci et al. 2010 ). The reasons are not fully understood, but contributing factors are assumed to be the misrepresentation of the actual land

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Mathew Barlow, Benjamin Zaitchik, Shlomit Paz, Emily Black, Jason Evans, and Andrew Hoell

– 314 , doi: 10.1023/A:1020582910569 . Marcella , M. P. , and E. A. B. Eltahir , 2008 : The hydroclimatology of Kuwait: Explaining the variability of rainfall at seasonal and interannual time scales . J. Hydrometeor. , 9 , 1095 – 1105 , doi: 10.1175/2008JHM952.1 . Marcella , M. P. , and E. A. B. Eltahir , 2010 : Effects of mineral aerosols on the summertime climate of southwest Asia: Incorporating subgrid variability in a dust emission scheme . J. Geophys. Res. , 115 , D18203 , doi

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Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling

variability Various factors have contributed to historical North American precipitation variability on seasonal and longer time scales. These include sensitivity to global sea surface temperature variability, local land surface feedbacks including persistent soil moisture states and land use changes, the effects of internal atmosphere variability such as expressed by prolonged circulation states associated with blocking and storm track shifts, and a sensitivity to global warming resulting from changes in

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Wenju Cai, Ariaan Purich, Tim Cowan, Peter van Rensch, and Evan Weller

1. Introduction Australia is one of the driest inhabited continents in the world, with a climate that is highly variable and which experiences seasonal-scale droughts with large interdecadal variability ( Gallant et al. 2007 ). Australia is also influenced by several modes of seasonal-scale variability such as the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), the southern annular mode (SAM), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; e.g., Nicholls et al. 1996 ; Ashok et al. 2003 ; Hendon et al. 2007 ; Risbey et

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Hailan Wang, Randal D. Koster, Max J. Suarez, and Pavel Ya. Groisman

, indicating the effects of land–atmosphere feedback. The role of SST in seasonal to decadal climate variability over Eurasia is also still not well understood. Again, much of the analysis of the role of SST has focused on impacts in Europe, although a number of these studies have implications for regions to the east. Ionita et al. (2012) analyzed the self-calibrating Palmer drought index ( van der Schrier et al. 2006 ) for the period 1901–2002 and found considerable interannual and multidecadal

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