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Manuel Punzet, Frank Voß, Anja Voß, Ellen Kynast, and Ilona Bärlund

stepwise approach to gain one single regression equation for use in impact analysis of climate change on stream water temperatures and related in-stream first-order decay rates: calculation of a global standard regression model, testing of various formulations for different climate zones, testing of seasonal hysteresis effects on a global scale, and validation with individual rivers in different climate zones. (i) Global standard regression model The nonlinear regression model [Eq. (1 )] was applied

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Richard Harding, Martin Best, Eleanor Blyth, Stefan Hagemann, Pavel Kabat, Lena M. Tallaksen, Tanya Warnaars, David Wiberg, Graham P. Weedon, Henny van Lanen, Fulco Ludwig, and Ingjerd Haddeland

-Analysis (ERA-40) data rather than National Center for Atmospheric Research–National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCAR–NCEP), (ii) subdaily rainfall and snowfall rates are distinguished (rather than just providing total precipitation), and (iii) corrections have been applied for seasonal- and decadal-scale variations in the effects of tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol loading on solar radiation (i.e., downward shortwave radiation), thereby accounting for the effects of “global dimming” and

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Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Aggeliki-Eleni K. Vrohidou, and Ioannis K. Tsanis

” ( Rossi 2000 ). All points of view seem to agree that drought is characterized by a significant decrease of water availability caused by a deficit in precipitation during a significant period over a large area. The effects and impacts of drought often accumulate slowly over a considerable period of time and may linger for years after the termination of the event, so there are always lags in perceiving these effects and impacts. Drought is an objective phenomenon, and so is its onset and end. The main

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Pete Falloon, Richard Betts, Andrew Wiltshire, Rutger Dankers, Camilla Mathison, Doug McNeall, Paul Bates, and Mark Trigg

) runoff scheme against HadCM3 predictions using TRIP (i.e., effectively comparing unrouted runoff from HadCM3 with TRIP-routed runoff). This has been described by Falloon et al. (2007) —the inclusion of TRIP in HadCM3 considerably improved river flow simulations, particularly for seasonality. 2. Methods and materials a. Climate models The version of the Hadley Centre GCM used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report ( Solomon et al. 2007 ) is HadGEM1

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D. Gerten, J. Heinke, H. Hoff, H. Biemans, M. Fader, and K. Waha

local crop water productivities. The resulting new water scarcity indicator is applied for both the present situation and for a large number of global change scenarios [climate change from 17 general circulation models (GCMs), including direct CO 2 effects on plants; B1 and A2 emissions and population scenarios]. All calculations were done at high spatial resolution (0.5° global grid, separately for rain-fed and irrigated areas) and also at high temporal resolution (daily time step, transient

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G. P. Weedon, S. Gomes, P. Viterbo, W. J. Shuttleworth, E. Blyth, H. Österle, J. C. Adam, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, and M. Best

://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/PRODOCS/srb/table_srb.html ) interpolated to half degree. Downward shortwave radiation was adjusted at the monthly time scale using CRU cloud cover and the local linear correlation between monthly average (interpolated) ERA-40 cloud cover and downward shortwave radiation ( Sheffield et al. 2006 ; Weedon et al. 2010 ). Troy and Wood (2009) compared unadjusted ERA-40 radiation fluxes with other reanalysis products and observations across northern Eurasia. ERA-40 does not include adjustments for the effects of seasonal and decadal

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Ingjerd Haddeland, Douglas B. Clark, Wietse Franssen, Fulco Ludwig, Frank Voß, Nigel W. Arnell, Nathalie Bertrand, Martin Best, Sonja Folwell, Dieter Gerten, Sandra Gomes, Simon N. Gosling, Stefan Hagemann, Naota Hanasaki, Richard Harding, Jens Heinke, Pavel Kabat, Sujan Koirala, Taikan Oki, Jan Polcher, Tobias Stacke, Pedro Viterbo, Graham P. Weedon, and Pat Yeh

into account anthropogenic impacts such as water withdrawals and dams. Hence, WaterMIP provides an opportunity to compare results of LSMs and GHMs, focusing on differences between the two model strategies, while additionally investigating the effects of anthropogenic impacts on the global terrestrial water balance. Estimates of water availability and stress, as well as the uncertainties thereof, will also be compared for both current and future conditions. Using a range of model simulations, the

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Wai Kwok Wong, Stein Beldring, Torill Engen-Skaugen, Ingjerd Haddeland, and Hege Hisdal

. The algorithms of the model are described by Bergström (1995) . In short, potential evapotranspiration is a function of air temperature and seasonally varying vegetation characteristics. The structure of the HBV model has been designed with the aim of providing realistic simulations of soil moisture and groundwater storage and their impact on runoff response. The HBV model simulates the spatial distribution of soil moisture content in the unsaturated zone and the volume of groundwater storage for

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Lukas Gudmundsson, Lena M. Tallaksen, Kerstin Stahl, Douglas B. Clark, Egon Dumont, Stefan Hagemann, Nathalie Bertrand, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Naota Hanasaki, Frank Voss, and Sujan Koirala

bias corrected and shortwave radiation adjusted according to cloud cover and aerosol loading using the CRU data ( Mitchell and Jones 2005 ; New et al. 1999 , 2000 ). Precipitation is bias corrected using the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre full product (GPCCv4) data ( Rudolf and Schneider 2005 ; Schneider et al. 2010 ; Fuchs 2009 ) and undercatch corrected ( Adam and Lettenmaier 2003 ). The simulations assumed “naturalized” conditions, which means that direct anthropogenic effects such

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Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Jamie Hannaford, Douglas B. Clark, Stefan Hagemann, and Frank Voss

northwest Scandinavia) and more persistent (groundwater-dominated southeast Great Britain) regimes captured by the simulations. As was witnessed in mountainous and snowmelt-influenced regions for modeled low flow occurrence, the models have shown an ability to reproduce seasonal snowmelt-driven streamflow responses and, in some years, the onset of high flow events in late spring, a response to the introduction of meltwater into river systems. These effects are particularly evident at high flows in

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