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Carl Wunsch and Patrick Heimbach

observation strategies, including the need to avoid aliasing of the strong seasonal cycles, to distinguish purely local effects from larger-scale ones, and to acquire the long duration of the observations that will be required for documentation and understanding. The general linear theory of the prediction of stationary time series ( Yaglom 1962 ) shows that more spectral structure produces longer prediction horizons. Thus, a narrowband annual cycle can be predicted accurately many years into the future

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Yafang Zhong and Zhengyu Liu

atmosphere is replaced with that of the seasonal cycle of the climatology from CTRL such that the atmosphere sees SST variability only in the extratropics outside of 20°. This new control has been discussed extensively by Zhong et al. (2008 ; namely, PC-ET). The absence of active ocean–atmosphere coupling in the tropics suppresses coupled tropical climate variability, such as ENSO. Nevertheless, distinguished PMV still takes place in the North Pacific. PC-ET is used to serve as the new base case for

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