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M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert, and R. Seager

in the seasonal forecasts of the 2010/11 southern plains drought, especially during the winter and spring season (e.g., Hoerling et al. 2013 ). The current study builds upon a body of climate sensitivity studies and physical reasoning that a conditioning of U.S. summer rainfall by particular large-scale oceanic conditions may also exist (e.g., Schubert et al. 2009 ; Findell and Delworth 2010 ). Yet, contrary to ENSO effects, the magnitude of that conditioning is still highly uncertain and

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