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David E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, and David A. Robinson

European heat wave (e.g., Stott et al. 2004 ). Other important aspects of global climate, for example, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclones, have not exhibited a detectable change ( Hegerl et al. 2007 ). Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) is among the most important indicators of global climate variability and change. An increase in global temperature should cause a decline in total snow cover extent given the 0°C-threshold response of snow formation and melt. However

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Eric D. Maloney, Suzana J. Camargo, Edmund Chang, Brian Colle, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, James Kinter, Benjamin Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Zaitao Pan, Richard Seager, Yolande Serra, Anji Seth, Justin Sheffield, Julienne Stroeve, Jeanne Thibeault, Shang-Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, and Ming Zhao

more intense events. In Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease with most of the decrease manifesting in decreasing runoff. c. Snow Reductions in snow cover extent and amount are expected in the future as a result of increasing temperatures modified by changes in precipitation and their seasonal interactions. This has important implications for water supply, hydropower generation, and ecosystems and feedbacks with the underlying soil and permafrost ( Lawrence and Slater 2010 ) and

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Justin Sheffield, Andrew P. Barrett, Brian Colle, D. Nelun Fernando, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Tong Ren, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Yolande L. Serra, Anji Seth, Jeanne M. Thibeault, Julienne C. Stroeve, Ze Yang, and Lei Yin

and feedbacks. As such, these data feed into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and other global, regional, and national assessments. The goal of this study is to provide a broad evaluation of CMIP5 models in their depiction of North American climate and associated processes. The set of climate features and processes examined in this first part were chosen to cover the climatology of basic surface climate and hydrological variables and their extremes

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Justin Sheffield, Suzana J. Camargo, Rong Fu, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Seon Tae Kim, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Richard Seager, Yolande L. Serra, De-Zheng Sun, Chunzai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, Jin-Yi Yu, Tao Zhang, and Ming Zhao

aspects of North American climate variability, organized by the time scale of the climate feature. Section 3 covers intraseasonal variability with focus on variability in the eastern Pacific Ocean and summer drought over the southern United States and Central America. Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity is evaluated in section 4 . Interannual climate variability is assessed in section 5 . Decadal variability and multidecadal trends are assessed in sections 6 and 7 , respectively

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Leila M. V. Carvalho and Charles Jones

rainfall across the southwest United States . J. Climate , 13 , 4018 – 4027 . Gutzler , D. S. , and J. W. Preston , 1997 : Evidence for a relationship between spring snow cover and summer rainfall in New Mexico . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 24 , 2207 – 2210 . Held , I. M. , and B. J. Soden , 2006 : Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming . J. Climate , 19 , 5686 – 5699 . Higgins , R. W. , Y. Yao , and X. Wang , 1997 : Influence of the North American monsoon

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Brian A. Colle, Zhenhai Zhang, Kelly A. Lombardo, Edmund Chang, Ping Liu, and Minghua Zhang

the coast. Associated with these storms are heavy snow ( Novak et al. 2008 ), inland flooding ( Colle 2003 ), and storm surge ( Colle et al. 2008 ). Therefore, any change in the frequency and intensity of these midlatitude cyclones over the Northeast United States is of great interest given the potential catastrophic consequences. For example, coastal areas of the Northeast United States are extremely vulnerable to storm surge, with the problem likely to become worse as the sea level rises during

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