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  • Integrated Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change in Selected Basins across the United States x
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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

, stepwise approach that applied a shuffled complex evolution global search algorithm ( Hay et al. 2006a ). This approach ensured that the models produced not only accurate runoff simulation but also realistic estimates of other hydrologic variables (e.g., snow-covered area or snowpack water equivalent). Given the uncertainty in climate modeling, it is desirable to use more than one GCM to obtain a range of potential future climatic conditions. An analysis of available output from the World Climate

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

). The 1 March SWE and depth has been measured at selected snow course sites in Maine since the early part of the twentieth century to aid in emergency-management flood forecasting and reservoir operation management ( Hodgkins et al. 2005b ). For the remainder of this paper, references to spring snow-covered area (SCA) and SWE refer to values on 1 April for the western basins and 1 March for the Cathance River basin in Maine. The spring simulated snowpack is examined for three climate-change emission

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

hydrologic processes because it simulates surface, soil, subsurface, and groundwater storage flux; runoff; snow cover and snowmelt; and a large number of other hydrologic variables on a daily time step. PRMS can be used to understand spatial variation of the hydrologic responses over large areas as well. It can be parameterized at a wide range of scales with any discretization scheme for subdividing the modeled region. PRMS simulations are based on the spatial variation in measurable physical

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Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

lakes (Mountain Meadows and Almanor; Figure 1 ). The catchment is relatively unpopulated; however, it has been heavily developed for hydroelectric power generation. Vegetation cover is predominantly coniferous trees, with some areas of shrubs and grasses surrounding Mountain Meadows Lake. Elevations range from about 1310 m at the outflow below Lake Almanor to about 2896 m near Mt. Lassen; 50% of this catchment is below the historical seasonal snow line ( Figure 1 ). Because of lower elevations and

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

based on the central tendencies of the five GCMs for the three emission scenarios by basin: (a) precipitation, (b) maximum temperature, (c) minimum temperature, (d) evapotranspiration, (e) streamflow, (f) snow-covered area, (g) snowpack water equivalent, and (h) soil moisture. Blue (red) indicates a significant negative (positive) trend ( p < 0.05) accounting for lag-1 autocorrelation. 4.1. Precipitation The central tendencies are shown graphically in mean annual plots of precipitation in Figure 6

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Daniel E. Christiansen, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

. Leavesley , and M. P. Clark , 2006b : Use of remotely-sensed snow covered area in watershed model calibration for the Sprague River, Oregon . Proc. Joint Eighth Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conf. and Third Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conf., Reno, NV, Subcommittee on Hydrology. [Available online at http://acwi.gov/hydrology/mtsconfwkshops/conf_proceedings/3rdFIHMC/7D_Hay.pdf .] Hay , L. E. , G. H. Leavesley , M. P. Clark , S. L. Markstrom , R. J. Viger , and M

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