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Samantha Stevenson, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Markus Jochum, Richard Neale, Clara Deser, and Gerald Meehl

1. Introduction Much effort has been expended on understanding the potential future behavior of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ( Collins et al. 2010 ; Meehl et al. 2006 ; Vecchi and Wittenberg 2010 ; Merryfield 2006 ). But an often overlooked question underlying the entire debate is the following: what do we really mean by an ENSO “response” to climate change, and when do we expect it to occur? From the perspective of resource management and human impacts, the relevant time horizon

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Samuel Levis, Gordon B. Bonan, Erik Kluzek, Peter E. Thornton, Andrew Jones, William J. Sacks, and Christopher J. Kucharik

( VanLoocke et al. 2010 ). Updated versions of the CLM may include additional crops of societal significance, such as Miscanthus and rice, and additional forms of land management, for example, irrigation, fertilization, and double cropping to improve the realism of our simulations and to investigate crop sensitivity to nutrient and water limitations. Crop model applications may also include investigations on environmental degradation and protection (e.g., soil quality, fertilizer as pollutant, and

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Clara Deser, Adam S. Phillips, Robert A. Tomas, Yuko M. Okumura, Michael A. Alexander, Antonietta Capotondi, James D. Scott, Young-Oh Kwon, and Masamichi Ohba

counterparts (e.g., Harrison and Larkin 1998 ; Okumura and Deser 2010 ). Driven primarily by coupled ocean–atmosphere processes within the tropical Indo-Pacific basin, the effects of ENSO are transmitted worldwide via atmospheric teleconnections, affecting precipitation and temperature in many societally vulnerable areas ( Trenberth et al. 1998 ; Alexander et al. 2002 ). Although the basic physical mechanisms of thermal and dynamical air–sea coupling that give rise to ENSO are well studied (see reviews

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Susan C. Bates, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Steven R. Jayne, William G. Large, Samantha Stevenson, and Stephen G. Yeager

different spinup procedures used in CCSM3 and CCSM4 ( Gent et al. 2011 ) significantly impact model trends ( Danabasoglu et al. 2011 ). 2. Data and analysis techniques Most of the historical CORE air–sea flux data are available globally, every 6 h from 1948 through 2007. The notable exceptions are precipitation (monthly from 1979), downward longwave and solar radiation (daily from July 1983), and sea ice concentration (daily from 1979). The CORE data used herein have been updated slightly from those

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