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Gabriel A. Vecchi, Rym Msadek, Whit Anderson, You-Soon Chang, Thomas Delworth, Keith Dixon, Rich Gudgel, Anthony Rosati, Bill Stern, Gabriele Villarini, Andrew Wittenberg, Xiasong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, and Shaoqing Zhang

I. Introduction Predicting and projecting future North Atlantic Ocean hurricane activity is a topic of scientific interest (e.g., Gray 1984 ; Knutson and Tuleya 2004 ; Emanuel 2005 ; Camargo et al. 2007a ; Vecchi et al. 2008 ; Smith et al. 2010 , hereafter S10 ; Knutson et al. 2010 ; Vecchi et al. 2011 ; Villarini et al. 2011b ; Villarini and Vecchi 2012b , 2013a , b ) and high societal significance ( Pielke et al. 2008 ; Mendelsohn et al. 2012 ; Peduzzi et al. 2012 ). The

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