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Lisa-Ann Quandt, Julia H. Keller, Olivia Martius, and Sarah C. Jones

1. Introduction As atmospheric blocking may cause high-impact weather like heat waves and flooding (e.g., Matsueda 2009 ), there is a special interest in its predictability and the physical processes that limit forecast quality. Blocking is a large-scale flow pattern that decelerates arriving eddies, as well as the background flow, and forces them to follow a more meridional direction (e.g., Rex 1950 ; Arakawa 1952 ; Sumner 1954 ). Atmospheric blocking is persistent and self-sustaining (e

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Michael Riemer, Marlene Baumgart, and Sven Eiermann

societal impact are one motivation to examine cyclogenesis downstream of ET in more detail. Further motivation stems from the important role of the downstream cyclone in the midlatitude dispersion of the impact of ET. This larger-scale impact exhibits high variability, may reach near-hemispheric scale, and is often associated with enhanced uncertainty in medium-range forecasts ( Harr et al. 2008 ; Anwender et al. 2008 ). The dispersion of the downstream impact is governed by the modification of

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Yannick Barton, Paraskevi Giannakaki, Harald von Waldow, Clément Chevalier, Stephan Pfahl, and Olivia Martius

occurred during winter. Out of these clustering periods, we selected the top four periods in terms of event counts and societal impacts to study the dynamics related to the low-frequency clustering. This selection relies partially on a subjective decision; however, we focus on the episodes with the severest impacts while still having a sample that represents the wide range of processes involved with and responsible for the clustering. We select the three time periods with three and more exceedances

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

conservation of mass and circulation within a PV isoline on an isentropic surface. The computation of the MLM results in a stronger background flow than the climatological time average and, hence, stronger PV gradients. If one transcends linear theory and accounts for nonlinear effects, the waves do have an impact on the background state. In practice it may, therefore, be an advantage to use a nonstationary background flow, which implicitly accounts for the feedback of the waves on the waveguide. For

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Maxi Boettcher and Heini Wernli

1. Introduction Meteorological research on diabatic Rossby waves (DRWs) has been intensifying in recent years after a DRW was detected for the first time in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output for a high-impact weather event. According to a mesoscale model hindcast simulation, a DRW served as an important precursor to the “Lothar” storm after Christmas 1999, which was one of the most harmful winter storms over Europe in the last few decades ( Wernli et al. 2002 ). The explosive

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