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Andrew J. Monaghan, Daran L. Rife, James O. Pinto, Christopher A. Davis, and John R. Hannan

1. Introduction a. Background Diurnally varying low-level jets (LLJs) occur in many regions across the planet ( Stensrud 1996 ). However, examining the causality, frequency, and impacts of these phenomena with a comprehensive and global approach has not been possible until now because of the coarse spatial (>100 km) and temporal (6-hourly) resolution of existing global reanalyses. The companion paper to this study ( Rife et al. 2010 , hereafter R10 ) introduced a new hourly, 40-km global

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Benjamin A. Cash, Xavier Rodó, and James L. Kinter

. Molteni , 2007 : Low-frequency variability of the Indian Monsoon–ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic: The “weakening” of the 1980s and 1990s. J. Climate , 20 , 4255 – 4266 . Lau , N-C. , and M. J. Nath , 2000 : Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian–Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J. Climate , 13 , 4287 – 4309 . Lau , N-C. , and M. J. Nath , 2003 : Atmosphere–ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO Episodes. J. Climate , 16

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A. Amengual, V. Homar, R. Romero, S. Alonso, and C. Ramis

linked to its climatology, being extremely sensitive to extreme weather impacts as well ( Amelung and Viner 2006 ). Fig . 1. Geographical location for the SPdP in the western Mediterranean region. Major topographic features for the entire area and Mallorca Island are shown. Also displayed is the location of the automatic weather station (LEPA). Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) constitute the primary tool to produce future climate projections. AOGCM simulations have been run under

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Francisco Javier Acero, José Agustín García, and María Cruz Gallego

reflecting the temporal changes in rainfall over the IP. Dependence issues constitute another major factor in rainfall time series such as those to be analyzed in the present study: the threshold exceedances tend to be grouped into clusters. One method to deal with this problem is to use declustering procedures based on the idea that clusters of exceedances are asymptotically independent ( Hsing 1987 ). The choice of declustering scheme often has a significant impact on estimates of the cluster

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Daniel Bannister, Michael Herzog, Hans-F. Graf, J. Scott Hosking, and C. Alan Short

drier while central China has become wetter during summer, and southern and east-central China has become wetter during winter (see, e.g., Hu et al. 2003 ; Chen et al. 2006 ; Zhou et al. 2006 ; Gu et al. 2009 ; Y. Li et al. 2009 , 2010 ; Yin et al. 2012 ). Since China is a densely populated country where the climate has high spatial and temporal variation, the physical environment and economic productivity across the country is particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts associated with

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Christopher M. Little, Radley M. Horton, Robert E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, and Stan Yip

, and, in particular, high and low outliers, meaningfully impacts LSL projections, especially if high-end (low probability) outcomes are targeted. The effect of excluding outliers is shown in Fig. 10 , in which the dark-shaded region indicates the range of the central 10 AOGCM projections (approximately the middle 66% of the ensemble). The exclusion of six models reduces the 2090 GMSL rise spread by ~75% to 25–30 cm. At NYC, the spread is reduced by ~50% to 33–56 cm. The range of projections may

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G. Bürger, T. Q. Murdock, A. T. Werner, S. R. Sobie, and A. J. Cannon

comprehensive overview]. By focusing on local extremes, therefore, one is confronted with both the shrinkage of sample size and the weakening of theoretical linkage to increasing greenhouse gases, as compared to, for example, global climate models. Nevertheless, a whole body of studies has emerged that tackle the impact of global warming on local extremes using some form of downscaling ( Schubert and Henderson-Sellers 1997 ; Olsson et al. 2001 ; Harpham and Wilby 2005 ; Dibike and Coulibaly 2006

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Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya

.). In contrast to MKL , who exclusively emphasize uncertainties that lead to smaller future changes, we have noted uncertainties that could lead to either smaller or larger changes in future intensities of hurricanes than those summarized in KT04 , with accompanying smaller or larger societal impacts. Note added in proof: After this Reply went to press, two observational studies were published ( Emmanuel 2005 ; Webster et al. 2005 ), both providing new observational evidence for possible emerging

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Shaleen Jain, Martin Hoerling, and Jon Eischeid

Fig. 4a resembles the 1950–2001 warming trend ( Knutson et al. 1999 ), one that is projected to continue throughout the twenty-first century ( Watson et al. 2001 ). We thus propose that the spatial patterns and temporal variations identified in this study provide a reduced set of atmospheric and SST archetypes of particular relevance in modeling efforts to attribute and project WNA regional hydrologic change. Societal vulnerability and impacts stemming from regional hydrologic change will

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Matthias Röthlisberger, Linda Frossard, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser, and Olivia Martius

1. Introduction Recent high-impact weather events such as the European heat wave in 2003, the Russian heat wave in 2010, and the 2013/14 cold winter in the U.S. Midwest have been associated with unusually persistent surface weather ( Black et al. 2004 ; Dole et al. 2011 ; Palmer 2014 ; Davies 2015 ). Therefore, it has been recognized that in addition to the magnitude of a particular weather event, its persistence can also significantly contribute to the societal impact of the event (e

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