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a probabilistic hail model to fill existing gaps in the knowledge of 1) large hail incidence, 2) the societal and economic impacts of large hail across Europe, and 3) the relationship between hail size and damage. Section 2 describes the data and methodology used to analyze hail occurrence and its impacts, section 3 discusses the spatiotemporal characteristics of large hail, section 4 deals with the relationship of hail size with the impacts and section 5 with the injuries and economic
a probabilistic hail model to fill existing gaps in the knowledge of 1) large hail incidence, 2) the societal and economic impacts of large hail across Europe, and 3) the relationship between hail size and damage. Section 2 describes the data and methodology used to analyze hail occurrence and its impacts, section 3 discusses the spatiotemporal characteristics of large hail, section 4 deals with the relationship of hail size with the impacts and section 5 with the injuries and economic
in which they develop, describes some intense events with large societal impacts, considers a well-simulated recent event (the 2006 Hanukkah Eve storm), and identifies some outstanding scientific questions regarding their development and dynamics. 2. Historical review This section describes the general characteristics and societal impacts of a collection of strong midlatitude cyclones that have produced substantial damage and economic loss over the northwest United States. The selection of these
in which they develop, describes some intense events with large societal impacts, considers a well-simulated recent event (the 2006 Hanukkah Eve storm), and identifies some outstanding scientific questions regarding their development and dynamics. 2. Historical review This section describes the general characteristics and societal impacts of a collection of strong midlatitude cyclones that have produced substantial damage and economic loss over the northwest United States. The selection of these
primary hazard in locations that are spared from the main TC wind, coastal storm surge, and inland flooding hazards. They can also be a hazard along the TC track well ahead of the storm, before residents expect the main TC impacts ( Spratt et al. 1997 ; McCaul et al. 2004 ). This analysis reveals common attributes of the location, timing, and damage potential of TC tornadoes, but individual cases must be considered in the context of their environmental conditions and interactions. Some TCs spawn few
primary hazard in locations that are spared from the main TC wind, coastal storm surge, and inland flooding hazards. They can also be a hazard along the TC track well ahead of the storm, before residents expect the main TC impacts ( Spratt et al. 1997 ; McCaul et al. 2004 ). This analysis reveals common attributes of the location, timing, and damage potential of TC tornadoes, but individual cases must be considered in the context of their environmental conditions and interactions. Some TCs spawn few
, 1999 : A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact studies. J. Coastal Res. , 15 , 168 – 185 . Jarvinen , B. R. , C. J. Neumann , and M. A. S. Davis , 1984 : A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, 24 pp . Jelesnianski , C. P. , J. Chen , and W. A. Shaffer , 1992 : SLOSH: Sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes. NWS Rep. 48, 71 pp . Landsea , C. W. , and
, 1999 : A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact studies. J. Coastal Res. , 15 , 168 – 185 . Jarvinen , B. R. , C. J. Neumann , and M. A. S. Davis , 1984 : A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, 24 pp . Jelesnianski , C. P. , J. Chen , and W. A. Shaffer , 1992 : SLOSH: Sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes. NWS Rep. 48, 71 pp . Landsea , C. W. , and
outdoor restaurant, do not think that they are making weather reports. People tend to take and share images, when something unusual happens. A September snowstorm in Paris probably gets more attention than a snowstorm in northern Scandinavia in February. Therefore, by observing the messages in social media, we may collect information of high-impact weather phenomena that would otherwise be imperfectly known, if at all, by the meteorological community. Social media services have different
outdoor restaurant, do not think that they are making weather reports. People tend to take and share images, when something unusual happens. A September snowstorm in Paris probably gets more attention than a snowstorm in northern Scandinavia in February. Therefore, by observing the messages in social media, we may collect information of high-impact weather phenomena that would otherwise be imperfectly known, if at all, by the meteorological community. Social media services have different
question, we translate the temperature forecasts to value in the electricity demand setting as detailed in section 2b , and examine the impact of these improvements on the occurrence and anticipation of forecast busts. A stepwise, multiple linear regression using the inputs of Table 1 produces an equation of the following form: where the temperature (°F) is rounded to the nearest integer (hereafter MLR). The most influential variables in MLR, as indicated by the standardized
question, we translate the temperature forecasts to value in the electricity demand setting as detailed in section 2b , and examine the impact of these improvements on the occurrence and anticipation of forecast busts. A stepwise, multiple linear regression using the inputs of Table 1 produces an equation of the following form: where the temperature (°F) is rounded to the nearest integer (hereafter MLR). The most influential variables in MLR, as indicated by the standardized
Abstract
The 2009 eastern North Pacific hurricane season had near normal activity, with a total of 17 named storms, of which seven became hurricanes and four became major hurricanes. One hurricane and one tropical storm made landfall in Mexico, directly causing four deaths in that country along with moderate to severe property damage. Another cyclone that remained offshore caused an additional direct death in Mexico. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2009 were quite skillful.
Abstract
The 2009 eastern North Pacific hurricane season had near normal activity, with a total of 17 named storms, of which seven became hurricanes and four became major hurricanes. One hurricane and one tropical storm made landfall in Mexico, directly causing four deaths in that country along with moderate to severe property damage. Another cyclone that remained offshore caused an additional direct death in Mexico. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2009 were quite skillful.
prompt full protective action in response to these large event probabilities. The relatively low expense of the phantom sequences suggests that their impact on the decision process is mainly one of psychology. Another observation is that the differences in conditional incurred expense are strongly dependent on the choice of cost function, as is evident in the contrast between the curves for C 5 ( Fig. 5c ) and those for C 7 ( Fig. 5e ). Finally, one notes that the conditional incurred
prompt full protective action in response to these large event probabilities. The relatively low expense of the phantom sequences suggests that their impact on the decision process is mainly one of psychology. Another observation is that the differences in conditional incurred expense are strongly dependent on the choice of cost function, as is evident in the contrast between the curves for C 5 ( Fig. 5c ) and those for C 7 ( Fig. 5e ). Finally, one notes that the conditional incurred
.e., the probability of a relatively short-lived heat wave occurring within a longer prediction window) and, in addition, apply stronger spatial smoothing. This combination effectively reduces the noise in the target time series and increases the base rate, while still predicting societally relevant high-temperature events. Thus, we conclude that S2S predictions of high-temperature events are possible, but also fundamentally limited by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere constraining the signal
.e., the probability of a relatively short-lived heat wave occurring within a longer prediction window) and, in addition, apply stronger spatial smoothing. This combination effectively reduces the noise in the target time series and increases the base rate, while still predicting societally relevant high-temperature events. Thus, we conclude that S2S predictions of high-temperature events are possible, but also fundamentally limited by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere constraining the signal
basis for subseasonal prediction, the weekly-to-seasonal time range is one in which early warning systems for high-impact weather events could be of substantial societal benefit ( World Meteorological Organization 2013 ). This is particularly urgent in the context of increasing societal exposure to extreme weather threats, be they caused by growing populations or due to decadal climate variability or anthropogenic climate change. A number of previous studies, such as Waliser et al. (2003b) and
basis for subseasonal prediction, the weekly-to-seasonal time range is one in which early warning systems for high-impact weather events could be of substantial societal benefit ( World Meteorological Organization 2013 ). This is particularly urgent in the context of increasing societal exposure to extreme weather threats, be they caused by growing populations or due to decadal climate variability or anthropogenic climate change. A number of previous studies, such as Waliser et al. (2003b) and
