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David M. Schultz, Eve C. Gruntfest, Mary H. Hayden, Charles C. Benight, Sheldon Drobot, and Lindsey R. Barnes

Method . Wiley, 464 pp . Dollard, J. , 1948/49 : Under what conditions do opinions predict behavior? Public Opin. Quart. , 12 , 623 – 632 . 10.1086/266005 Doswell C. A. III, , 2003 : Societal impacts of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes: Lessons learned and implications for Europe. Atmos. Res. , 67–68 , 135 – 152 . Doswell C. A. III, , 2005 : Progress toward developing a practical societal response to severe convection (2005 EGU Sergei Soloviev Medal Lecture). Nat. Hazards

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Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter

recent local FAR in assessing warning credibility, and construct multiple FARs based on different geographies and time horizons. We then include the FAR variable in a regression analysis of tornado casualties. We do not examine the link between false alarms and warning response directly, but since warning response affects casualties and our 19 yr of data include over 21 000 state tornado segments, we seek to detect an impact on response through casualties. We find a strong relationship between the

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Daniel Sutter and Somer Erickson

perhaps 66 million person-hours actually spent sheltering per year with a value of about $750 million. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the value of time spent sheltering saved might be closer to $500 million and a 95% lower bound on the value of time saved annually is $109 million. We also discuss other societal impacts of SBW. The area directly in the path of a tornado or radar indicated tornado will still be warned, so any effect of SBW on casualties will be due to second-order effects such as

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Amber Silver and Jean Andrey

). These storms are among the most destructive atmospheric phenomena on Earth, and are “from a meteorological and climatological perspective, one of nature’s most challenging perils” ( Etkin et al. 2001 , p. 915). A substantial portion of the literature pertaining to the societal aspects of these intense storms focuses on the various factors that influence warning response. These factors may be either external to the individual or individual controlled. Examples of externally controlled factors include

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Jason C. Senkbeil, Meganne S. Rockman, and John B. Mason

:// .] Glass, R. I. , Craven R. B. , Bregman D. J. , Stoll B. J. , Horowitz N. , Kerndt P. , and Winkle J. , 1980 : Injuries from the Wichita Falls tornado: Implications for prevention . Science , 207 , 734 – 738 . Hall, S. G. , and Ashley W. , 2008 : Effects of urban sprawl on the vulnerability to a significant tornado impact in northeastern Illinois . Nat. Hazards Rev. , 9 , 209 – 219 . Hammer, B. , and Schmidlin T. W. , 2002 : Response to warnings during the 3 May 1999

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Walker S. Ashley, Stephen Strader, Troy Rosencrants, and Andrew J. Krmenec

and people affected suggests that swelling populations, development trends, and vulnerabilities are outpacing mitigation and adaptation, leading to greater disaster frequencies and amplified impacts. Through demographic and asset normalization methods, long-term, macroscale hazard impact assessments [cf. Table 1 in Bouwer (2011) and Table 3 in Barthel and Neumayer (2012) ] have suggested that societal change and economic development are the primary factors responsible for the increasing trend

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Philip L. Chaney, Greg S. Weaver, Susan A. Youngblood, and Kristin Pitts

against natural hazards: 1) assess the probability of a hazard event; 2) review the behaviors (i.e., options) available to mitigate risk; 3) evaluate the impacts of these behaviors in terms of their risk abatement potential and consequences for other aspects of life; and 4) decide which option, if any, to adopt. Many factors have been found to have a positive influence on adoption of hazard adjustments, with some of the more prominent factors being perception of the risk, perception of the hazard

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Maria A. F. Silva Dias

intense storms and wind shear has been attempted by certain authors. In the particular case of subtropical South America, a good indication of the increase in wind shear is the increase in speed of the upper-level jet and/or of the lower-level jet, which are dominant features in the MCC cases ( Velasco and Fritsch 1987 ; Vera et al. 2006 ). Carvalho et al. (2005) show that Pacific sea surface temperature has an impact on the upper-level wind speed over the south region, and Barros et al. (2002

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Kevin D. Ash, Ronald L. Schumann III, and Gregg C. Bowser

). Previously, the NWS issued severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings by county, meaning that even if a tornado was expected to impact only a very small section of a county, the entire county would be warned nevertheless ( Waters et al. 2005 ). SBWs are more geographically specific and are depicted visually as trapezoid or polygon shapes encompassing the areas that could experience a tornado over the duration of the warning period (usually 30–45 min). An SBW is drawn in tandem with accompanying warning

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Mark A. Casteel and Joe R. Downing

, L. , and Felser C. , 2011 : Plausibility and recovery from garden paths in second language sentence processing . Appl. Psychol. , 32 , 299 – 331 , doi:10.1017/S0142716410000421 . Rupinski, P. , 2011 : Housing after the tornado. Tuscaloosa News, 28 August. [Available online at .] Savelli, S. , and Joslyn S. , 2013 : The advantages of 80% predictive interval forecasts for non-experts and the impact of visualizations

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