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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez

confine the positive surface temperature anomalies to the southern Great Plains during 2011 since they both induce negative surface temperature anomalies over the northern Great Plains and the eastern United States. These effects are associated with negative NAO-like responses to the SST in both oceans ( Figs. 7h,i ), which, together with the response to the Pacific, combine to produce the negative NAO-like response shown in Fig. 6c . In contrast, during 2012 the Indian Ocean acts to reinforce the

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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Historically La Niña events have led to drier than normal conditions in the southwest United States, northern Mexico, the southern Plains, and southeast United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest ( Ropelewski and Halpert 1986 ; Mason and Goddard 2001 ; Seager et al. 2005a ). This turned out to be a good forecast for much of the southern United States in winter 2010/11, which experienced drier than normal conditions except in

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M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert, and R. Seager

a summertime U.S. climate sensitivity to Atlantic forcing (e.g., Schubert et al. 2009 ; Findell and Delworth 2010 ; Kushnir et al. 2010 ). Also, the tropical-wide SST anomalies of the past year have attributes of the so-called perfect ocean for drought pattern, with an enhanced west–east contrast in ocean temperatures between the Indo-Pacific and central Pacific. Land precipitation was found to be sensitive to this structure, especially for the cold season over the southern United States

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Xing Yuan, Eric F. Wood, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Justin Sheffield, Jonghun Kam, Miaoling Liang, and Kaiyu Guan

drought events, and reducing the possibility of humanitarian crises ( Pozzi et al. 2013 ). The major source of seasonal forecast predictability comes from the ocean, and the strongest signal is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As the easterly trade winds weaken, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific increase. This alters the Walker circulation and the convection zone in the tropics, affecting the climate in midlatitudes and high latitudes through Rossby wave trains

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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Jiangfeng Wei, Michael G. Bosilovich, and David M. Mocko

Mississippi basin mainly east of the Great Plains. This area also shows a major oceanic source from the Gulf of Mexico, but with more extent into the northern Caribbean Sea (see Dirmeyer and Kinter 2010 ) and little moisture coming from the west. There is again a substantial terrestrial source over the southern and central portions of the area. Figure 2 (top) also shows the evaporative source for the East Coast, which shows much more of a source from the open Atlantic than does the Mississippi basin

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Eric F. Wood, Siegfried D. Schubert, Andrew W. Wood, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kingtse C. Mo, Annarita Mariotti, and Roger S. Pulwarty

, Seager et al. (2014) analyzed the causes of the 2010/11 drought in Texas and northern Mexico. They concluded that La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean initiated the drought but also found that a very negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) contributed to the dryness in the southern plains and southeastern United States. An important finding was that intensification of the drought in summer 2011 was not forced by SST but was most likely due to internal atmospheric variability. They

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Johnna M. Infanti and Ben P. Kirtman

newly formed multi-institutional, multimodel ensemble system for intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) prediction, which includes models from nine institutional partners ( Kirtman et al. 2014 ). The choice of this particular set of models is motivated by the availability of phase-1 data and the potential for inclusion of additional fields and improvements to be made with later phases. The NMME system is used in real time by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction

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Youlong Xia, Michael B. Ek, David Mocko, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Justin Sheffield, Jiarui Dong, and Eric F. Wood

1. Introduction The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) runs four land surface models (LSMs) over the NLDAS domain covering southern Canada, the contiguous United States (CONUS), and northern Mexico in support of improved weather prediction and land data assimilation. The NLDAS was initiated in 1999 via the collaboration among the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and several universities as a tool

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Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jason Otkin, Xiwu Zhan, Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, and Agustin Pimstein

ALEXI period of record is currently limited to the MODIS era (2000 and following), but can be extended back to the early 1980s using VI data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) series flown by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and geostationary data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) B1 data rescue project ( Knapp 2008 ). Snow-covered regions have been masked using the 24-km resolution Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and

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Bart Nijssen, Shraddhanand Shukla, Chiyu Lin, Huilin Gao, Tian Zhou, Ishottama, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

a suite of land surface models. The U.S. Drought Monitor ( Svoboda et al. 2002 ) has provided weekly drought updates since 1999 as part of a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Kogan and Sullivan (1993) made an early attempt to develop a global drought monitor using satellite information, primarily using satellite-based vegetation indices

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