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Ronald M. Errico, George Ohring, Fuzhong Weng, Peter Bauer, Brad Ferrier, Jean-François Mahfouf, and Joe Turk

1. Introduction As a result of better numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, more powerful computers, new satellite observations, and more efficient and effective data assimilation systems, the forecast skill of midtropospheric synoptic flow patterns has steadily improved over the past few decades. Today’s 4-day forecasts of those patterns are as accurate as 3-day predictions were just a decade ago and as 2-day forecasts were 2 decades ago. Forecasts for the Southern Hemisphere, where

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Fuzhong Weng, Tong Zhu, and Banghua Yan

northeasterly upper-level flow that forced Katrina to turn southwestward as it was slowly approaching southern Florida. Katrina made its first landfall on the southern Florida peninsula at 2230 UTC 25 August as a category-1 hurricane. After staying for about 6 h on the peninsula, Katrina emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. Once back into the ocean, Katrina quickly intensified for about a 2-day period, and became a category-5 hurricane with a peak intensity of 902 hPa at 1800 UTC 28 August. As Katrina continued

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Graeme L. Stephens and Christian D. Kummerow

about 10%–20%. b. Cloud liquid water path The differential emission of microwave radiation by clouds and water vapor at selected microwave frequencies provides the basis for estimating the vertically integrated cloud water content (LWP). This approach has mainly been applied over the global oceans (e.g., Greenwald et al. 1993 ; Alishouse et al. 1990 ; Curry et al. 1990 ) although methods have been developed to use these microwave emission measurements in conjunction with infrared emission

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Peter M. Norris and Arlindo M. da Silva

dependence Figure 10 shows an example of the mean spatial dependence of the cloud fraction parameters for the month of December 2000. Clearly there is significant spatial variation in the parameters. Numerous interesting features are visible in the figure, such as the regions in the northwest Pacific and Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean in which clouds appear to be forming at very low relative humidities. The northern ocean basin cases may well be due to the occurrence of convective clouds generated

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Arthur Y. Hou and Sara Q. Zhang

distributions have been a major impediment to understanding how the Tropics interact with other parts of the globe, including the remote response to tropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, and the possible global influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global atmospheric analysis capable of capturing the observed tropical rainfall variability accompanied by physically consistent estimates of wind, temperature

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