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Roxana C. Wajsowicz

1. Introduction To date, investigations on the prediction of climate variability have tended to focus on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as discussed by Latif et al. (1994) , and the North Atlantic (see e.g., Griffies and Bryan 1997 ). Skillful prediction of interannual variability in the Asian–Australian monsoons, while recognized as an important goal, remains elusive due to the complexity of the system ( Webster et al. 1998 ). However, prospects for the recently identified Indian Ocean

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Karumuri Ashok, Hisashi Nakamura, and Toshio Yamagata

jet core in the lower troposphere ( Nakamura and Shimpo 2004 ). By contrast, the lower-tropospheric eddy activity, as represented by 850-hPa , is strong along the PFJ, with its core in the western South Indian Ocean ( Fig. 1d ). Interestingly, the eddy activity is locally enhanced over southern Australia, forming a secondary core in the lower troposphere. As pointed out by Nakamura and Shimpo (2004) , the primary core of the SH storm track is collocated with the core of the deep PFJ, which is

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Bohua Huang and J. Shukla

outside the tropical Indian Ocean, we have shown that the major dynamical response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forced anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Indian Basin is a pattern of opposite thermocline fluctuations between the eastern equatorial and southwestern Indian Ocean, with the former preceding the latter. This ENSO-related pattern of fluctuation explains a significant part of the Indian Ocean interannual variability during the studied period. In particular, it explains

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Bohua Huang and J. Shukla

1. Introduction It has long been recognized that fluctuations of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly influenced by global-scale climate variations such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Statistically, SST increases in the whole Indian Ocean from the late boreal winter of an El Niño year to the next spring, a few months after the peak of the SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific (see, e.g., Pan and Oort 1990 ; Kawamura 1994 ; Tourre and White

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Gary Meyers, Peter McIntosh, Lidia Pigot, and Mike Pook

1. Introduction The Indian Ocean zonal dipole mode (IOD; Saji et al. 1999 ; Webster et al. 1999 ) is a basin-scale pattern of surface and subsurface temperature that seriously affects the interannual climate anomalies of many nations around the Indian Ocean rim, as well as the global climate system ( Yamagata et al. 2004 ). When it occurs, the pattern typically reaches a peak phase during the latter part of the year, often September–October, after a rapid development during the Southern

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J. C. Hermes, C. J. C. Reason, and J. R. E. Lutjeharms

1. Introduction The Agulhas Current is the strongest western boundary current in the Southern Hemisphere and transports warm tropical water southward along the east coast of South Africa. There are thought to be three major sources in the south Indian Ocean for the Agulhas Current: recirculation in the southwest Indian Ocean, flow through the Mozambique Channel, and the East Madagascar Current. Based on all available hydrographic data up until the mid-1990s, Stramma and Lutjeharms (1997

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R. J. Murray, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, and C. J. C. Reason

drift is negligible in comparison with the interannual changes of 0.2°–1°C, which occurred in waters down to 1500 m during the transient simulations. The model ocean was global except for the Arctic seas, which were considered unimportant for this study and were blocked at the Greenland–Iceland–Scotland Ridge. No sea ice model was used, as the water properties in the (mainly Southern Hemisphere) sea ice regions were forced by prescribed and restoration fluxes in the same way as in open ocean regions

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Tommy G. Jensen

. separate the remote influence of ENSO and positive IOD events on the Southern Hemishere winter storm tracks and the associated reduced rainfall over southern Australia and New Zealand. Annamalai et al. are using ensemble calculations from two AGCMs to show that during El Niño the SSTA in the southwestern Indian Ocean opposes the effects of SSTA in the tropical Pacific over the Pacific–North American region. The next four papers address the heat flux and heat transport in the tropical Indian Ocean. In

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Vinu K. Valsala and Motoyoshi Ikeda

1. Introduction Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is a system of currents flowing from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and the only low-latitude connection between the world oceans. The ITF is the major route of fresh and warm water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean ( Gordon and Fine 1996 ). It plays a significant role in the Indian Ocean heat budget by exchanging nearly 11 W m −2 with the atmosphere, which amounts to up to 25% of the net air–sea heat flux of the southern Indian Ocean ( Vranes

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Tomoki Tozuka, Jing-Jia Luo, Sebastien Masson, and Toshio Yamagata

decadal variation in the tropical Pacific. Also, Allan et al. (1995) and Reason et al. (1996a) suggested the importance of decadal variability in the subtropical anticyclone in the southern Indian Ocean, while Reason et al. (1996b) showed that the decadal variability in the winds over the Pacific may introduce decadal variations in the southern Indian Ocean via the Indonesian Throughflow. More recently, Ashok et al. (2004) have revealed, using both data and coupled model results, the existence

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