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Robert G. Nystrom, Fuqing Zhang, Erin B. Munsell, Scott A. Braun, Jason A. Sippel, Yonghui Weng, and Kerry Emanuel

the northern Atlantic. While Joaquin’s motion slowed in the Bahamas, historic flooding commenced along the eastern coast of the United States when a cutoff low pressure system developed over the southeastern United States and transported moisture from Joaquin into the region. By 1200 UTC 3 October, Joaquin had turned northward and began to track to the northeast, away from the U.S. coast ( Fig. 1e ). The westerly winds in the southern region of the low pressure system located over the southeastern

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T. Ghosh and T. N. Krishnamurti

consensus, on the average, produces better results than the individual member model forecasts. The ensemble averages showed considerable improvement compared to the member models in the studies by Goerss et al. (2004) and Sampson et al. (2005) for forecasts of typhoons over the western North Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) introduced a consensus model called GUNA ( Franklin 2006 ; Goerss 2000 ) in 2001. (A list of key consensus-naming acronyms and their

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William A. Komaromi and James D. Doyle

momentum associated with the eddies. Leroux et al. (2013) found a similar evolution, with trough interaction triggering secondary eyewall formation for TC Dora in the Indian Ocean. In a follow-on study, Leroux et al. (2016) found an optimal position of the TC relative to the trough in order for favorable interaction to occur. However, for many real cases, the temporal window in which EFC promotes TC intensification will be short: positive EFC may occur too far from the TC if the trough is not

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Eric A. Hendricks, Russell L. Elsberry, Christopher S. Velden, Adam C. Jorgensen, Mary S. Jordan, and Robert L. Creasey

and east could be accelerated toward the lower pressures in that trough. The rapidly changing environmental conditions affecting Joaquin continued at 1815 UTC 4 October as the translation speed decreased to 4.6 m s −1 and turned toward 23° from north, and the CIMSS VWS had decreased to 9 m s −1 , but now was from the west-southwest (245°; Table 2 ). Note in Fig. 3c that Joaquin was within a gradient region between very large VWS on the northern side and near-zero VWS on the southern side. As

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Jie Feng and Xuguang Wang

-IV flies within an approximately 1000-km radius of the TC center ( Burpee et al. 1996 ; Aberson and Franklin 1999 ), primarily sampling the TC environment. During the recent field campaigns such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) project ( Braun et al. 2016 ) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) program, an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) named Global

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