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Masamichi Ohba, Shinji Kadokura, Yoshikatsu Yoshida, Daisuke Nohara, and Yasushi Toyoda

of particular concern since these tend to have the greatest economic and social consequences. Global-scale climate variations such as those associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect regional-scale climates through the change in WP frequency of occurrence. For example, several studies showed significant correlation between WP frequency and ENSO climate signals around the northern Pacific (e.g., Kimoto and Ghil 1993 ), which can result in dramatic changes in regional climates

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Sandra E. Yuter, David A. Stark, Justin A. Crouch, M. Jordan Payne, and Brian A. Colle

2010 ) examined 58 long-lived, widespread precipitation events in the Southern Alps to determine a heuristic framework for nowcasting orographic precipitation events. They found that the direction of the wind determined the locations of precipitation and that upstream wind velocity had a larger impact on the intensity and frequency of precipitation compared to variations in moist static stability. In their large sample of heavy precipitation events from January 2004 to December 2008, flows with

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Timothy J. Lang, Steven A. Rutledge, and Robert Cifelli

and LeMone 1989 ; Hu and Srivastava 1995 ; Rosenfeld and Lensky 1998 ; Atlas and Ulbrich 2000 , 2006 ; Ulbrich and Atlas 2007 ). These two archetypes have been invoked to explain, among other things, observed regional variability in latent heating profiles ( Tao et al. 2001 , 2006 , 2010 ) as well as the observed land–ocean contrast in lightning flash rates ( Orville and Spencer 1979 ; Zipser and Lutz 1994 ; Boccippio et al. 2000 ; Nesbitt et al. 2000 ; Toracinta et al. 2002 ; Xu et al

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Youcun Qi, Jian Zhang, Brian Kaney, Carrie Langston, and Kenneth Howard

precipitation is comparable to or greater than the vertical variation. Another challenge is the underestimation for orographically enhanced precipitation processes. The existing WSR-88D cannot adequately resolve the orographic processes below the freezing level. The current study uses S-band Precipitation Profiler (S-PROF; Ecklund et al. 1999 ; White et al. 2000 ; Matrosov et al. 2006 ) observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hydrometeorology Testbed 2006 (HMT06

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F. M. Ralph, T. Coleman, P. J. Neiman, R. J. Zamora, and M. D. Dettinger

-year’s precipitation in just a few events. Finally, Dettinger (2011) analyzed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) climate projections to assess changes in AR characteristics off the California coast and showed that recent climate change projections typically include more extreme ARs in the twenty-first century due largely to greater atmospheric water vapor content. Fig . 1. (a) Satellite image of an AR over the eastern Pacific Ocean seen in IWV. Land is black since SSM

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Yudong Tian, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, and John B. Eylander

the ocean when gauge data do not exist. This method works best when the errors in different satellite-based estimates are independent, but this condition is usually not satisfied. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has been producing a real-time global precipitation analysis, based on PMW and IR retrievals, superseded by gauge reports from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s Global Telecommunication System (GTS). But the gauge reports available from GTS in real time are rather sparse

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F. M. Ralph, E. Sukovich, D. Reynolds, M. Dettinger, S. Weagle, W. Clark, and P. J. Neiman

long history of examining a particular period and region to document QPF performance, including the early paper by Bosart (1980) that documented errors in the operational forecast model of that era. A key driver of HMT is the recognition that the current metric and precipitation threshold used to assess forecast skill are inadequate for many users, particularly for large precipitation events. Currently, the official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s National Weather Service

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James A. Smith, Gabriele Villarini, and Mary Lynn Baeck

). Lagrangian analyses of rainfall distribution and storm evolution are presented for flood events in the eastern United States ( section 3 ) and used to motivate new directions for stochastic modeling of rainfall and characterizing spatial extremes of flood magnitudes ( section 4 ). Spatial heterogeneities in flood peak distributions due to orographic precipitation mechanisms in mountainous terrain, coastal circulations near land–ocean boundaries, and urbanization impacts on regional climate are central

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Jian Zhang and Youcun Qi

and its bottom was well above the ground ( Fig. 1c 1 ), and overestimations of 50%–200% were found in a northeast–southwest-oriented band where the radar beam intersected the BB layer. The second was a springtime squall-line system that occurred on 27 May 2008 in the southern plains ( Figs. 1a 2 –1c 2 ). An area of overestimation was found in the trailing stratiform rain ( Figs. 1a 2 and 1b 2 ) due to a deep BB layer ( Fig. 1c 2 ) that most likely contained large melting snow aggregates. The

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