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J. E. Kay, C. Deser, A. Phillips, A. Mai, C. Hannay, G. Strand, J. M. Arblaster, S. C. Bates, G. Danabasoglu, J. Edwards, M. Holland, P. Kushner, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lawrence, K. Lindsay, A. Middleton, E. Munoz, R. Neale, K. Oleson, L. Polvani, and M. Vertenstein

). After initial condition memory is lost, which occurs within weeks in the atmosphere, each ensemble member evolves chaotically, affected by atmospheric circulation fluctuations characteristic of a random, stochastic process (e.g., Lorenz 1963 ; Deser et al. 2012b ). As we will show, internal climate variability has a substantial influence on climate trajectories, an influence that merits further investigation, comparison with available observations, and communication. Evaluating the realism of

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Weiqing Han, Jérôme Vialard, Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Yukio Masumoto, Ming Feng, and Will P.M. de Ruijter

branch of the CEC flows southward across the equator, while the subsurface branch is associated with cold thermocline water that flows northward within the Somali Current, upwelling near the coasts of Somali and Oman ( Miyama et al. 2003 ; Lee 2004 ; Schott et al. 2004 ). Fig. 3. Schematic diagram showing the zonal- and time-mean meridional overturning circulation of the upper Indian Ocean that consists of a STC and CEC. Adapted from Lee (2004) . Unlike the prevailing easterly trades in the

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P. Tchipalanga, M. Dengler, P. Brandt, R. Kopte, M. Macuéria, P. Coelho, M. Ostrowski, and N. S. Keenlyside

The seasonal circulation and interannual hydrographic variability off the coast of Angola is revealed by biannual research cruise data (1995–2017) from the Nansen Programme. Angola is located at the Atlantic coast in southwestern Africa between 5° and 17°20ʹS, with borders to the Democratic Republic of Congo in the north and to Namibia in the south. Its coastline stretches over a distance of 1,600 km. The Angolan territorial waters support a highly productive ecosystem. Seasonal upwelling

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Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Matthew Newman, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Jin-Yi Yu, Pascale Braconnot, Julia Cole, Boris Dewitte, Benjamin Giese, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin, Kristopher Karnauskas, Benjamin Kirtman, Tong Lee, Niklas Schneider, Yan Xue, and Sang-Wook Yeh

. 2011a ). In particular, using a variety of reanalysis products, Lübbecke and McPhaden (2014) find a weakening of the thermocline feedback, relative to the zonal advective feedback, in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the CP-dominated 2000–10 decade. TELECONNECTIONS AND IMPACTS. SSTAs associated with the ENSO cycle influence convective processes and modify the atmospheric circulation, thus affecting patterns of weather variability worldwide ( Trenberth et al. 1998 ). These atmospheric

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Michael J. McPhaden, Axel Timmermann, Matthew J. Widlansky, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, and Timothy N. Stockdale

The first-ever El Niño forecast, issued for 1975, failed; we turn back the clock to reconstruct what happened and why. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest year-to-year climate fluctuation on our planet, with impacts that are felt worldwide in both natural systems and human affairs ( McPhaden et al. 2006 ). ENSO affects patterns of weather variability by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation through teleconnections that emanate from the tropical Pacific

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Ichiro Fukumori, Patrick Heimbach, Rui M. Ponte, and Carl Wunsch

global climatology has probably been the hydrographic compilation produced initially by Levitus (1982) and its successors as the World Ocean Atlas ( WOA ) in its latest form ( WOA13 ; Locarnini et al. 2013 ). They used data from the entire history of physical oceanographic measurements of temperature and salinity as a function of horizontal position and depth. Other global averages include that of Gouretski and Koltermann (2004) , from data of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). A

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L. M. Beal, J. Vialard, M. K. Roxy, J. Li, M. Andres, H. Annamalai, M. Feng, W. Han, R. Hood, T. Lee, M. Lengaigne, R. Lumpkin, Y. Masumoto, M. J. McPhaden, M. Ravichandran, T. Shinoda, B. M. Sloyan, P. G. Strutton, A. C. Subramanian, T. Tozuka, C. C. Ummenhofer, A. S. Unnikrishnan, J. Wiggert, L. Yu, L. Cheng, D. G. Desbruyères, and V. Parvathi

subduction of waters into the thermocline from seasonal deep mixed layers at the southern reaches of the basin and an inflow of Antarctic Intermediate Water with upwelling in the SCTR and in the Arabian Sea (cross-equatorial and subtropical cells; Schott et al. 2002 , 2009 ; Han et al. 2014b ; McDonagh et al. 2008 ). Third, a horizontal subtropical gyre circulation dominated by the poleward-flowing warm and salty waters of the Agulhas Current at the western boundary ( Bryden and Beal 2001 ). Over the

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Md. Rashed Chowdhury and Pao-Shin Chu

stations are located in the northwest Pacific. These Islands are located near the center of activity for major variations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation associated with the ENSO events. F ig . 1. Map of the Pacific Islands. The USAPI and non-USAPI stations are labeled with open and black circles, respectively. Due to lack of data, non-USAPI station Suva (crossed open circle) could not be processed. CURRENT OPERATIONAL SEA LEVEL FORECASTS AT PEAC. Based on the hypothesis that ENSO has a

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Samson Hagos, Gregory R. Foltz, Chidong Zhang, Elizabeth Thompson, Hyodae Seo, Sue Chen, Antonietta Capotondi, Kevin A. Reed, Charlotte DeMott, and Alain Protat

) variations over the eastern equatorial Pacific, where the thermocline is normally shallower ( Capotondi et al. 2015 ), while zonal advection near the eastern edge of the warm pool appears to be most relevant to central Pacific warming. There has also been much progress in our understanding of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) propagation mechanisms. Specifically, it has been shown that horizontal advection of the background lower-tropospheric moisture by MJO circulation plays a critical role in driving

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Paquita Zuidema, Ping Chang, Brian Medeiros, Ben P. Kirtman, Roberto Mechoso, Edwin K. Schneider, Thomas Toniazzo, Ingo Richter, R. Justin Small, Katinka Bellomo, Peter Brandt, Simon de Szoeke, J. Thomas Farrar, Eunsil Jung, Seiji Kato, Mingkui Li, Christina Patricola, Zaiyu Wang, Robert Wood, and Zhao Xu

Warm tropical SST biases in coupled climate models can be improved through a focus on identifying and rectifying systematic biases in individual models and on the representation of specific processes in the upwelling regions. Most contemporary coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) produce a climate that is significantly more symmetric about the equator than in observations ( Mechoso et al. 1995 ; Davey et al. 2002 ; Biasutti et al. 2006 ; de Szoeke and Xie 2008

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