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R. M. Clancy and LCDR W. D. Sadler

-time prediction centerfor global-scale and open-ocean regional-scale oceanographic products, having filled this role for over 25 years.FLENUMOCEANCEN provides operational oceanographic services to U.S. and allied naval forces, other components of the Department of Defense, and a wide variety of civilian interests with output from sophisticatedocean models. These models are highly automated and most are linked closely to atmospheric models. Thermal structure and circulation models provide a representation

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C. J. C. Reason and A. Keibel

of climatological minimum in thermocline depth, where correlations of this depth with SST are greatest. These authors present evidence that years with deeper-than-average thermocline depth in the 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E region tend to have more TC in the SWIO than those with shallower thermocline depths. To see whether this suggested relationship might also hold true for Eline, plots of subsurface ocean temperature were constructed from Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model

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K. P. Sooraj, H. Annamalai, Arun Kumar, and Hui Wang

circulation and rainfall ( Charney and Shukla 1981 ) has been supported by various atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) sensitivity studies (e.g., Shukla and Wallace 1983 ; Livezey et al. 1996 ; Kumar and Hoerling 1998 ). In particular, Shukla (1998) showed that the tropical flow patterns and rainfall over the Pacific are determined by the underlying SST, as was also suggested by Soman and Slingo (1997) . In summary, seasonal prediction over the tropics, and to a certain degree over the

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Julián David Rojo Hernández, Óscar José Mesa, and Upmanu Lall

in the last 50 years of observations. Also, Bayr et al. (2018) find that many state-of-the-art climate models exhibit an equatorial cold SST bias in the Niño-4 region. As a consequence, they simulate a too westward located rising branch of the Walker Circulation and only a weak convective response. The CGCMs could be more “chaotic” than the real world, due to an overactive thermocline feedback, and deficient damping from evaporation and cloud shading, likely related to an equatorial cold tongue

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Jili Dong, Ricardo Domingues, Gustavo Goni, George Halliwell, Hyun-Sook Kim, Sang-Ki Lee, Michael Mehari, Francis Bringas, Julio Morell, and Luis Pomales

1. Introduction Interaction between the upper ocean and tropical cyclones (TCs) may partly drive further intensification or dissipation through several key feedback mechanisms such as the development of turbulent mixing, upwelling, and baroclinic adjustment processes (e.g., Price et al. 1994 ; Dickey et al. 1998 ; Prasad and Hogan 2007 ). While baroclinic adjustment processes (i.e., propagation of inertial internal waves in the thermocline) provide one way of dispersing the energy introduced

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John G. W. Kelley, Jay S. Hobgood, Keith W. Bedford, and David J. Schwab

, thermal structure, and circulation of the lakes ( Boyce et al. 1989 ). Severe lake wave and storm surge conditions can result in coastal flooding and erosion, disruption of navigation, property damage, and loss of lives. Sudden changes in a lake’s thermal structure can have significant impact on its chemical and biological structure ( Mortimer 1987 ). Several statistical techniques and numerical models have been developed to aid lake forecasters in the prediction of wave and storm surge conditions on

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Sarah C. Jones, Patrick A. Harr, Jim Abraham, Lance F. Bosart, Peter J. Bowyer, Jenni L. Evans, Deborah E. Hanley, Barry N. Hanstrum, Robert E. Hart, François Lalaurette, Mark R. Sinclair, Roger K. Smith, and Chris Thorncroft

to interact with the midlatitude baroclinic environment, the characteristics of the cyclone change dramatically ( Palmén 1958 ; Muramatsu 1985 ; Foley and Hanstrum 1994 ; Klein et al. 2000 ). In satellite imagery the inner core of the tropical cyclone loses its symmetric appearance and gradually takes on the appearance of an extratropical cyclone. The nearly axisymmetric wind and precipitation distributions that are concentrated about the circulation center of the tropical cyclone evolve to

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J. V. Ratnam, Takeshi Doi, Yushi Morioka, Pascal Oettli, Masami Nonaka, and Swadhin K. Behera

can to some extent explain the sign of the SAT anomalies. Positive (negative) 850-hPa geopotential height anomalies located over a region indicate open sky (cloudy) conditions and hence can lead to increase (decrease) of incoming solar radiation thereby increase (decrease) the SAT anomalies over the region. Also, the circulation anomalies associated with the 850-hPa height anomalies can advect warm or cold air from the surrounding seas and contribute to the variation of the SAT anomalies. Thus, to

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T. M. Smith, A. G. Barnston, M. Ji, and M. Chelliah

recognized for a longtime (Wyrtki 1975, 1985) that subsurface ocean conditions hold a key to future variations in SST changesand associated global atmospheric circulation changes,that is, the future phase of the ENSO. Latifand Graham(1992) clearly show that the use of oceanic subsurfacetemperatures improves the forecast skill of tropical Pacific SSTs using a CCA model. They used subsurfacetemperature variations obtained from a continuous integration (simulation) of an ocean general circulationmodel (OGCM

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Michelle Mainelli, Mark DeMaria, Lynn K. Shay, and Gustavo Goni

1. Introduction Based on extensive deliberations of the Prospectus Development Team 5 tasked by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF), improving our understanding of hurricane intensity requires knowledge of the 1) atmospheric circulation, 2) inner-core and eyewall processes, and 3) upper-ocean circulation and ocean heat transport ( Marks et al. 1998 ). While the oceanic energy source for tropical cyclones (TCs) has largely been

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