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W. James Steenburgh and Leah S. Campbell

1. Introduction Accurate prediction of the timing, location, and intensity of lake-effect snowfall is paramount for forecasters in lake-, sea-, and ocean-effect (hereafter simply lake effect) regions. Intense, often highly localized lake-effect snowfall can produce rapid and extreme accumulations, adversely impacting transportation, commerce, and property ( Norton and Bolsenga 1993 ; Schmidlin 1993 ; Kunkel et al. 2002 ). Especially strong lake-effect systems (i.e., complexes of lake

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David A. R. Kristovich, Richard D. Clark, Jeffrey Frame, Bart Geerts, Kevin R. Knupp, Karen A. Kosiba, Neil F. Laird, Nicholas D. Metz, Justin R. Minder, Todd D. Sikora, W. James Steenburgh, Scott M. Steiger, Joshua Wurman, and George S. Young

accumulations have large impacts on businesses, transportation, and health systems in regional communities. Lake-effect snowstorms, however, benefit some economic sectors such as building supply and snow removal businesses and a vibrant winter-sports economy ( Schmidlin 1993 ; Kunkel et al. 2002 ; Tug Hill Commission 2015 ). Many lake-effect snowstorms are enhanced over the Tug Hill Plateau (hereafter Tug Hill; Fig. 1 ), which rises ∼500 m above lake level. Record snowfall accumulations observed in this

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Peter G. Veals and W. James Steenburgh

1. Introduction The Great Lakes of North America produce frequent, sometimes intense, lake-effect snowstorms during the cool season (e.g., Niziol et al. 1995 ). High snowfall rates, low visibility, and heavy accumulations impact commerce and transportation, but also contribute to a vibrant winter-sports economy ( Tug Hill Commission 2014 ). The region east of Lake Ontario, in particular, observes some of the most intense snowstorms in the world, many enhanced over the Tug Hill Plateau

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Leah S. Campbell and W. James Steenburgh

1. Introduction Lake-effect snowstorms generated over the Great Lakes of North America and other bodies of water can produce intense, extremely localized snowfall (e.g., Andersson and Nilsson 1990 ; Steenburgh et al. 2000 ; Eito et al. 2005 ; Laird et al. 2009 ; Kindap 2010 ). Forecasters still struggle, however, to accurately predict the timing and location of the heaviest snowfall during lake-effect events, which disrupt local and regional transportation, education, utilities, and

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