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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Jiangfeng Wei, Michael G. Bosilovich, and David M. Mocko

Africa, and northwestern Australia show typical distances of less than 500 km, as does a band across the Sahel to Ethiopia, particularly during JJA. These areas show some persistence of the relatively short transport distances, even in the dry season. Surprisingly, the distances are somewhat longer in the deep tropics. The effect of the annual cycle of winds and terrestrial evaporation are evident over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Distances are shorter in the summer when

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Xing Yuan, Eric F. Wood, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Justin Sheffield, Jonghun Kam, Miaoling Liang, and Kaiyu Guan

drought events, and reducing the possibility of humanitarian crises ( Pozzi et al. 2013 ). The major source of seasonal forecast predictability comes from the ocean, and the strongest signal is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As the easterly trade winds weaken, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific increase. This alters the Walker circulation and the convection zone in the tropics, affecting the climate in midlatitudes and high latitudes through Rossby wave trains

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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

sandwiched between low anomalies in the tropics and high latitudes. However, the limited similarity to the typical La Niña pattern indicates a substantial component of internal atmospheric variability in the MAM 2011 pattern. The observed height anomalies drive westerly anomalies into the Pacific Northwest that are consistent with, via a mean flow moisture convergence anomaly, a wet Pacific Northwest as observed ( Figs. 5 and 8 ). The model precipitation anomalies, with dry anomalies extending farther

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Bart Nijssen, Shraddhanand Shukla, Chiyu Lin, Huilin Gao, Tian Zhou, Ishottama, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

during the rainy season in most areas with a distinct wet and dry season. For example, model spread is lowest in West Africa in JJA, in India during the monsoon season (JJA), and in northern Australia and the Mediterranean during December–February (DJF). In the humid tropics, the model spread tends to be low, although the model spread in central Africa is consistently higher than at the same latitude in South America or Oceania. e. Real-time precipitation and temperature forcings As described earlier

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