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A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, M. Kidston, L. Bopp, P. Ciais, P. Cox, C. Jones, M. Jung, R. Myneni, and Z. Zhu

models at the global scale or over large latitudinal bands (see below). For all other model variables, the evaluation is performed at the grid level, conserving the spatial information. However, when presenting the results, all model performances are averaged over the following domains for land variables: global (90°S–90°N), Southern Hemisphere (20°–90°S), Northern Hemisphere (20°–90°N), and the tropics (20°S–20°N). Considering the ocean carbon, according to Gruber et al. (2009) , we aggregate

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Pu Shao, Xubin Zeng, Koichi Sakaguchi, Russell K. Monson, and Xiaodong Zeng

distributions and regional averages may provide greater insight. Therefore, here we first evaluate the global and zonal averages from the eight ESMs and then assess the averages in three regions over the tropics, midlatitudes, and high latitudes, respectively. a. Global and zonal-mean carbon budget The latitudinal distribution of the zonal-mean T over land agrees well among models ( Fig. 1a ). Compared with observations, T is overestimated by most models between 10° and 30°N and underestimated in two

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V. Brovkin, L. Boysen, V. K. Arora, J. P. Boisier, P. Cadule, L. Chini, M. Claussen, P. Friedlingstein, V. Gayler, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, G. C. Hurtt, C. D. Jones, E. Kato, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, F. Pacifico, J. Pongratz, and M. Weiss

changes in vegetation cover in Australia in RCP8.5. The diversity among the models in crop fractions is also considerable, although most of the patterns are reproduced in the tropics ( Fig. 2 ). The temporal dynamics of crop area changes presented in Fig. 3 (top) show a relatively smaller spread between the models [±1 standard deviation (SD)] in comparison with the pasture changes ( Fig. 3 , middle). On average, the RCP2.6 simulations show almost twice as high changes in crop areas as the RCP8

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Spencer Liddicoat, Chris Jones, and Eddy Robertson

.5 GtC yr −1 at 2050. By the late twenty-first century, shrubs have expanded northward to inhabit regions that were previously bare soil, and over the next 100 yr needleleaf trees start to follow. Over the twenty-second century, shrubs start decline from around 45° to 65°N, with broadleaf trees growing to replace them as the climate becomes suitable. Shrubs and needleleaf trees are partially replaced in temperate regions, as are broadleaf trees in the tropics, due largely to the expansion of

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Lifen Jiang, Yaner Yan, Oleksandra Hararuk, Nathaniel Mikle, Jianyang Xia, Zheng Shi, Jerry Tjiputra, Tongwen Wu, and Yiqi Luo

and in the Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and tropics. Todd-Brown et al. (2013) benchmarked historical simulations of soil carbon stocks from CMIP5 ESMs at the gridcell, biome, and global scales. Both analyses have shown that scale does affect model performances. The study by Anav et al. (2013) was the first attempt to evaluate historical simulations of terrestrial vegetation carbon in CMIP5 ESMs along with many other variables. While it is likely that there were interactions

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Alan J. Hewitt, Ben B. B. Booth, Chris D. Jones, Eddy S. Robertson, Andy J. Wiltshire, Philip G. Sansom, David B. Stephenson, and Stan Yip

decade ( Fig. 5i ) with being an important source of variability in the first decade ( Fig. 5l ), strongly suggesting that anthropogenic land-use change is an important early source of variance in tropical land region carbon fluxes. It is interesting to note that the progression of the RCP scenario radiative forcing from low to high is not repeated in the degree of carbon uptake in the tropics ( Fig. 5i ), with RCP8.5 appearing to have a lower carbon uptake than RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. 5. Discussion We

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Vivek K. Arora, George J. Boer, Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael Eby, Chris D. Jones, James R. Christian, Gordon Bonan, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Patricia Cadule, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Jerry F. Tjiputra, and Tongwen Wu

the tropics. Over the ocean, CO 2 loss is associated with warmer temperatures, which reduce CO 2 solubility ( Goodwin and Lenton 2009 ). In Fig. 2 , NorESM-ME and CESM1-BGC behave somewhat differently than the other models. Over land, they give up the lowest amount of carbon in response to warming in the radiatively coupled simulation ( in Fig. 2e ) but also take up the least amount of carbon in the biogeochemically coupled simulation in response to CO 2 increase ( in Fig. 2f ). The

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Jörg Schwinger, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Christoph Heinze, Laurent Bopp, James R. Christian, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, David Salas-Mélia, Joachim Segschneider, Roland Séférian, and Ian Totterdell

basin is absent in the northern Pacific region. In the tropics both estimates of the climate effect on deep ocean DIC are nearly equal: that is, there is little nonlinearity in a region extending from approximately 15°S to 15°N. Fig . 9. Zonal means of deep ocean (column integral below 500-m depth; mean value over the last 10 yr of the simulation period) derived from COU–BGC (solid lines) and RAD (dashed lines) for (a) the Atlantic Ocean, (b) the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and (c) the waters south

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