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Christina Kumler-Bonfanti, Jebb Stewart, David Hall, and Mark Govett

are well defined as any closed, low-level rotating system with thunderstorms and high winds that originate over the waters of the tropics ( Holland 1993 ; Merrill 1993 ). However, there is no universally agreed-upon definition for extratropical cyclones. NOAA defines extratropical cyclones as low-pressure systems that could be associated with a front ( Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory 2020 ), whereas the American Meteorological Society defines them as any cyclonic storm that

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Noah D. Brenowitz, Tom Beucler, Michael Pritchard, and Christopher S. Bretherton

bins of LTS and Q . For the GCRM training dataset, we partition the points in the tropics and subtropics (23°S–23°N); the humidity bins are 2 mm wide, and the LTS bins are 0.5 K wide. For SPCAM, we use 20 bins evenly spaced between 0 and 40 mm for midtropospheric moisture and from 7 to 23 K for LTS. These ranges are chosen to roughly span the observed ranges of samples within the tropics (see Figs. 1a,b ). In both cases, the NN’s inputs x are averaged over these bins. Denote this average by E

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Andrew E. Mercer, Alexandria D. Grimes, and Kimberly M. Wood

composites ( Figs. 6a,c ) and non-RI composites ( Figs. 6b,d ), further demonstrating the potential applicability of our results. c. 30-kt/24-h definition The 30-kt/24-h RI definition results showed that 1000-hPa temperature on the largest 18° × 18° domain ( Fig. 7 ) was best for distinguishing RI and non-RI environments. These results were surprising given the generally barotropic conditions in the tropics, but the true positive composite ( Fig. 7a ) revealed a northward-oriented temperature gradient

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Hanoi Medina, Di Tian, Fabio R. Marin, and Giovanni B. Chirico

forecasting over the globe (e.g., Hamill 2012 ; Su et al. 2014 ; He et al. 2010 ; Cloke and Pappenberger 2009 ). However, few studies have focused on assessing the NWP precipitation predictability associated with large and intense mesoscale convective systems ( Bechtold et al. 2012 ), such as tropical rainfall. Atmospheric convection is an essential process for understanding and modeling the weather dynamics over the tropics ( Bony et al. 2015 ), but one very difficult to analytically represent in

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Sid-Ahmed Boukabara, Vladimir Krasnopolsky, Jebb Q. Stewart, Eric S. Maddy, Narges Shahroudi, and Ross N. Hoffman

. , 64 , 1136 – 1154 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2644 . 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2644 Beucler , T. , M. Pritchard , S. Rasp , P. Gentine , J. Ott , and P. Baldi , 2019 : Enforcing analytic constraints in neural-networks emulating physical systems. arXiv , 11 pp., http://arxiv.org/abs/1909.00912 . Blackwell , W. J. , and Coauthors , 2019 : Microwave atmospheric sounding CubeSats: From MicroMAS-2 to TROPICS and beyond. Ninth Conf. on Transition of Research to Operations

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