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Ingjerd Haddeland, Douglas B. Clark, Wietse Franssen, Fulco Ludwig, Frank Voß, Nigel W. Arnell, Nathalie Bertrand, Martin Best, Sonja Folwell, Dieter Gerten, Sandra Gomes, Simon N. Gosling, Stefan Hagemann, Naota Hanasaki, Richard Harding, Jens Heinke, Pavel Kabat, Sujan Koirala, Taikan Oki, Jan Polcher, Tobias Stacke, Pedro Viterbo, Graham P. Weedon, and Pat Yeh

simulated runoff varies substantially between the models, and to some extent so does the timing of runoff over the year. The patterns seen in Figs. 6 and 7 —namely large absolute differences in runoff in the tropics, with relative differences being larger in the drier basins—reflect the mean annual values and CVs presented globally in Fig. 1 . Because all simulations were for naturalized conditions, meaning that dams and water withdrawals that change the dynamics of the water cycle are not taken

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Richard Harding, Martin Best, Eleanor Blyth, Stefan Hagemann, Pavel Kabat, Lena M. Tallaksen, Tanya Warnaars, David Wiberg, Graham P. Weedon, Henny van Lanen, Fulco Ludwig, and Ingjerd Haddeland

Northern Hemisphere tropics (West and East Africa and southern Asia) with distinct upward trends at high latitudes. Zhang et al. (2007) conclude that anthropogenic forcing has contributed significantly to these observed zonal changes in precipitation. There is some evidence for the increased intensity of precipitation in Europe ( Klein Tank and Konnen 2003 ; Zolina et al. 2010 ) and worldwide ( Groisman et al. 2005 ). The increase in heavy rainfall is more than the percentage average and is

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D. Gerten, J. Heinke, H. Hoff, H. Biemans, M. Fader, and K. Waha

is dense. If the GW resource is added ( Fig. 2b ), water availability becomes significantly higher in almost all regions, although a significant number of countries remain below 1700 cubic meters per capita per year (especially in North Africa and the Near East). By contrast, most countries at high latitudes and in the humid tropics, or countries with few resources but low population (such as Australia), are characterized by high per capita water availability (>4000 m 3 ). Fig . 2. Annual country

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Philippe Lucas-Picher, Jens H. Christensen, Fahad Saeed, Pankaj Kumar, Shakeel Asharaf, Bodo Ahrens, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Daniela Jacob, and Stefan Hagemann

. Nordeng, T. E. , 1994 : Extended versions of the convective parameterization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics . ECMWF Tech. Memo. 206, 41 pp . Oki, T. , and Sud Y. C. , 1998 : Design of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP)—A global river channel network . Earth Interact. , 2 , 1 – 37 . Park, S. , and Hong S.-Y. , 2004 : The role of surface boundary forcing over South Asia in the Indian summer monsoon circulation: A

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G. P. Weedon, S. Gomes, P. Viterbo, W. J. Shuttleworth, E. Blyth, H. Österle, J. C. Adam, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, and M. Best

weakness with ERA-40 precipitation is the presence of too many wet days in the tropics ( Betts and Beljaars 2003 ; Hagemann et al. 2005 ; Uppala et al. 2005 ) rather than spurious standing wave patterns. The approach used to redress this weakness was to compare the number of wet days in a particular month at each half-degree grid square with the CRU data. When and where there were too many wet days in the interpolated data (specifically two days or more than the CRU count), the number of days with

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