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John G. Dwyer, Michela Biasutti, and Adam H. Sobel

and Sobel 2009 ; Sobel and Camargo 2011 ; Seth et al. 2011 ; Dwyer et al. 2012 ). Models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012 ) show changes of the same sign, as we discuss in section 3 and as documented elsewhere ( Biasutti 2013 ; Seth et al. 2013 ; Huang et al. 2013 ). These CMIP3 and CMIP5 studies suggest a variety of causes to explain the projected changes in the annual cycle, including high-latitude phase delays due to reduced sea ice affecting the tropics; changes in the

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Lisa Hannak, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anke Kniffka, and Gregor Pante

thermodynamical diurnal cycle in the lower atmosphere: A joint evaluation of four contrasted regimes in the tropics over land . Bound.-Layer Meteor. , 150 , 185 – 214 , doi: 10.1007/s10546-013-9862-6 . 10.1007/s10546-013-9862-6 Dee , D. , and Coauthors , 2011 : The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 137 , 553 – 597 , doi: 10.1002/qj.828 . 10.1002/qj.828 Donner , L. J. , and Coauthors , 2011 : The dynamical core

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Wassila M. Thiaw and Vadlamani B. Kumar

across Africa and the global tropics. These forecasts feed into the RCOFs, providing NMSs and regional climate centers with real-time access to information relevant to the state of the global climate and NCEP outlooks. The trainees in the climate desk work primarily on operational climate monitoring and forecasting. The trainees learn how to use the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) ( Mason 2011 ). CPT consists of several advanced

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Gang Zhang, Kerry H. Cook, and Edward K. Vizy

1. Introduction Warm season rainfall in the tropics varies greatly on wide-ranging time scales and remains a challenging issue for weather and climate prediction. Here we focus on the diurnal cycle of West African rainfall. A physical understanding of how the diurnal cycle is controlled is crucial for simulating and predicting changes in both mean precipitation and extreme rainfall events. For example, to confidently project how rainfall will change in the future under global warming, climate

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Kerry H. Cook and Edward K. Vizy

over the greater horn of Africa . J. Climate , 20 , 5715 – 5731 . Camberlin , P. , 1995 : June–September rainfall in north-eastern Africa and atmospheric signals over the tropics: A zonal perspective . Int. J. Climatol. , 15 , 773 – 783 . Camberlin , P. , 1997 : Rainfall anomalies in the source region of the Nile and their connection with the Indian summer monsoon . J. Climate , 10 , 1380 – 1392 . Chen , F. , and J. Dudhia , 2001 : Coupling an advanced land

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Thomas Engel, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Gregor Pante, and Jan Bliefernicht

. Cook and Vizy (2015) found suspicious upward trends in the TPW over the Sahara and global tropics in the NCEP-2 and MERRA reanalyses, but not in ERA-I. The latter has been verified for the Dakar and Ouagadougou area (not shown). c. Satellite data In large parts of Africa, where the coverage of weather stations is low, SRFEs offer the only possibility to obtain area-wide observations of precipitation. We have opted to test the allegedly best rainfall product at daily time scales, the TRMM 3B42

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Gang Zhang, Kerry H. Cook, and Edward K. Vizy

. Takayabu , and Y. Wang , 2009 : Diurnal cycle of precipitation in the tropics simulated in a global cloud-resolving model . J. Climate , 22 , 4809 – 4826 , doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2890.1 . Skamarock , W. C. , and Coauthors , 2008 : A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, 113 pp. , doi: 10.5065/D68S4MVH . Sorooshian , S. , K.-L. Hsu , X. Gao , H. V. Gupta , B. Imam , and D. Braithwaite , 2000 : Evaluation of PERSIANN system

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Abdou L. Dieng, Saidou M. Sall, Laurence Eymard, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, and Alban Lazar

into the tropics during the summer period (see Diedhiou et al. 1999 ). Approximately 2000 km from the coast (around 36°W), a second zone of the same longitudinal width as the coastal one is chosen to find the systems that may precede these coastal systems. Indeed, this distance was found by Vizy and Cook (2009) as the mean distance separating pre-Tropical Storm Debby and Tropical Storm Ernesto in the case of Tropical Storm Debby genesis, and was confirmed by Dieng et al. (2014) with a

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M. Issa Lélé, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3364:SEAVAW>2.0.CO;2 . Hastenrath , S. , 1990 : Decadal-scale changes of the circulation in the tropical Atlantic sector associated with Sahel drought . Int. J. Climatol. , 10 , 459 – 472 , doi: 10.1002/joc.3370100504 . Hastenrath , S. , 1991 : Climate Dynamics of the Tropics. Kluwer Academic, 488 pp . Hastenrath , S. , and D. Polzin , 2011 : Long-term variations of circulation in the tropical Atlantic sector and Sahel rainfall . Int. J. Climatol. , 31 , 649 – 655 , doi: 10.1002/joc

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Zewdu T. Segele, Michael B. Richman, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

; Charney and Shukla 1981 ; Xue and Shukla 1993 ; Clark and Arritt 1995 ; Clark et al. 2001 ). The surface boundary focus of the present Ethiopian study is SST. However, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related “predictability barrier” in Northern Hemisphere spring (e.g., Goswami and Shukla 1991 ; Webster and Yang 1992 ; Webster et al. 1998 ) can pose a major challenge to providing seasonal rainfall forecasts two or more months in advance in the tropics ( Goddard et al. 2001 ; Korecha and

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