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Steven J. Phipps, Helen V. McGregor, Joëlle Gergis, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Raphael Neukom, Samantha Stevenson, Duncan Ackerley, Josephine R. Brown, Matt J. Fischer, and Tas D. van Ommen

influenced by the surface freshwater balance ( Cole and Fairbanks 1990 ; Fairbanks et al. 1997 ; Rohling and Bigg 1998 ), while P and E both influence δ 18 O ocean directly. A 1000-yr CSIRO Mk3L preindustrial control simulation is used to construct a pseudocoral from these model variables. Stepwise regression is used to screen the set of potential predictors, with cross validation used to protect against statistical overfitting ( Wilks 2011 ). Table 4 shows the outcome of this process, with

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