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P. C. D. Milly and Krista A. Dunne

this paper are, within the context of the larger USGS study, 1) to estimate the extent to which stand-alone hydrologic-model water-balance changes associated with climate change differ from the water-balance changes in the climate models that are used to estimate the climate change; 2) to identify the relative importance of distinct contributors to those differences; 3) in particular, to assess the consistency of potential evapotranspiration changes between the climate model and the modified Jensen

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on basin response. Response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water-balance relations, streamflow regimes, soil-water relations, and groundwater recharge. Each hydrologic component used for generation of streamflow is represented within PRMS by a process algorithm that is based on a physical law or an empirical relation with measured or calculated characteristics

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

phase 3 multimodel dataset archive, which was referenced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES; Solomon et al. 2007 ). For each GCM, one baseline and three future carbon emission scenarios were analyzed. Climate-change emission scenarios were derived by calculating mean change in climate from baseline to future conditions in the simulations from each GCM. The IPCC historical simulation for water years 1988–99 was

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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

has long been known to significantly affect the hydrologic response of a watershed.” By 1968, study of this phenomenon was mature enough to support the publication of a guidebook on the subject ( Leopold 1968 ). In addition to altering the ability of water to infiltrate into the soil and changing physical routing of water across the land surface, urbanization has been shown to affect heat budgets and evaporation ( Dow and DeWalle 2000 ). The rate of conversion from rural to relatively impervious

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

assess the effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff throughout the conterminous United States, Wolock and McCabe ( Wolock and McCabe 1999 ) used a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric GCMs. However, their results were uncertain because they were mostly within the range of GCM decade-to-decade variability and GCM model error. To simulate hydrologic climate changes at a watershed scale, downscaled GCM air temperature and precipitation data can be input to

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