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Andreas Schäfler, Andreas Dörnbrack, Christoph Kiemle, Stephan Rahm, and Martin Wirth

water vapor and the associated latent heat release are thought to be a major weakness in the formulation of current operational NWP models. The diagnosis of “forecast–analysis” differences of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) by Didone (2006) and Dirren et al. (2003) revealed characteristic patterns of forecast errors on the downstream side of the cold front of the extratropical cyclones. Among the observational errors of the initial

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Hilke S. Lentink, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Sarah C. Jones

advected westward along the coast and then over land around the mountains of the Kii Peninsula ( Fig. 7a ; the names of topographic locations are given in Fig. 1 ). Nevertheless, they are forced to rise over local hills ( Fig. 8a ; t = −3 to t = 0). There is still an increase in water vapor from evaporating precipitation ( Fig. 8c ), which is now associated with Sinlaku’s principal rainband that propagated over the Kii Peninsula (red line in Fig. 7b ). Despite evaporation, the air parcels

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Yannick Barton, Paraskevi Giannakaki, Harald von Waldow, Clément Chevalier, Stephan Pfahl, and Olivia Martius

Statistics . Wiley, 272 pp . Schwierz , C. , M. Croci-Maspoli , and H. Davies , 2004 : Perspicacious indicators of atmospheric blocking . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 31 , L06125 , doi: 10.1029/2003GL019341 . Süveges , M. , and A. C. Davison , 2010 : Model misspecification in peaks over threshold analysis . Ann. Appl. Stat. , 4 , 203 – 221 , doi: 10.1214/09-AOAS292 . Turato , B. , O. Reale , and F. Siccardi , 2004 : Water vapor sources of the October 2000 Piedmont flood . J

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Olivia Martius and Heini Wernli

water vapour on transport in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 11 , 407 – 419 . Reiter , E. R. , and L. F. Whitney , 1969 : Interaction between subtropical and polar-front jet stream . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 97 , 432 – 438 . Rossa , A. M. , H. Wernli , and H. C. Davies , 2000 : Growth and decay of an extratropical cyclone’s PV-tower . Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , 73 , 139 – 156 . Schwierz , C. , S. Dirren , and H. C. Davies , 2004 : Forced waves on a

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Maxi Boettcher and Heini Wernli

Forecasts (ECMWF). The fields with an original spectral resolution of T511L60 have been interpolated onto a regular grid with 0.6° horizontal resolution on the original 60 vertical levels. The analyses and the forecasts are available every 6 h. Four deterministic forecasts will be investigated that were started at 0000 and 1200 UTC on 17 and 18 December 2005, respectively. Further variables such as PV and the latent heating rate due to the condensation of water vapor have been derived from the ECMWF

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Julian F. Quinting, Michael M. Bell, Patrick A. Harr, and Sarah C. Jones

track of Sinlaku (Source: Japan Meteorological Agency). The arrow indicates the position of Sinlaku at 0600 UTC 20 Sep. In the satellite imagery ( Fig. 2 ) a broad cirrus shield with a sharp edge to the northeast of the low-level center of Sinlaku indicated that the cyclone was in the transformation stage of ET ( Klein et al. 2000 ). This feature marked the confluence of the cyclone outflow with the midlatitude jet to the north. Between 19 and 20 September, infrared ( Fig. 2a ) and water vapor

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Jana Čampa and Heini Wernli

. Bauer and Del Genio (2006) and Catto et al. (2010) compared composites of extratropical cyclones in general circulation models (GCMs) with those from the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Bauer and Del Genio (2006) found fewer, weaker, and more slowly moving cyclones in a GCM. In addition, vertical velocities were underestimated, which has consequences for the evolution of water vapor, clouds, and precipitation associated with extratropical

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Christian M. Grams and Heather M. Archambault

including water vapor, cloud water, rain, snow, cloud ice, and graupel. We use COSMO instead of WRF because of our technical experience with the TC removal methodology and continuity with earlier studies ( Grams et al. 2011 , 2013b ). However, we note that unlike WRF, COSMO only provides a limited set of different physical parameterizations for sensitivity studies. Two simulations are performed: a control simulation (CNTRL) initialized from the composite fields described in section 3b and a

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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

. Geophys. , 20 , 851 – 875 , doi: 10.1029/RG020i004p00851 . Muller , C. J. , L. E. Back , P. A. O’Gorman , and K. A. Emanuel , 2009 : A model for the relationship between tropical precipitation and column water vapor . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 36 , L16804 , doi: 10.1029/2009GL039667 . Plant , R. , and G. Craig , 2008 : A stochastic parameterization for deep convection based on equilibrium statistics . J. Atmos. Sci. , 65 , 87 – 105 , doi: 10.1175/2007JAS2263.1 . Raschendorfer

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Franziska Teubler and Michael Riemer

.g., Ahmadi-Givi et al. 2004 ). Longwave radiative PV tendencies are prominent near the tropopause, where the large vertical water vapor gradient implies large (climatological) gradients in radiative heating (e.g., Zierl and Wirth 1997 ). From a Lagrangian perspective, Chagnon et al. (2013) have shown that positive (negative) PV tendencies are found, in general, just above (below) the tropopause. Similarly, a dipole of prominent PV tendencies due to longwave radiation can be expected at the top of

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