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John M. Peters, Christopher J. Nowotarski, and Gretchen L. Mullendore

continuous updraft propagation continuously supply boundary layer air to its LFC, and thereby play an important role in supercell updraft persistence. These unique properties of supercells contribute to the largest vertical velocities among observed modes of atmospheric convection ( Lehmiller et al. 2001 ; DiGangi et al. 2016 ), with the potential exception of volcanic eruptions and vigorous pyrocumulus (e.g., Peterson et al. 2018 ). The intensity of supercell updrafts has often been attributed to

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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez

° latitude × 1.25° longitude resolution with 72 vertical levels. Further details of the simulations can be found in the text. 3. Results a. The response to global SST forcing We begin by evaluating how well the 2011 and 2012 heat waves and droughts are represented in the baseline simulations forced with the observed global SSTs. Our comparison begins with a look at the ensemble means. The ensemble average reduces the unforced atmospheric internal variability and highlights those signals forced by the

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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

/11 but that anthropogenic climate change contributed to the record-breaking high temperatures. While the 2010/11 drought and heat wave was decidedly severe, much longer droughts have occurred. The records that were broken during the event were often set in the 1930s and 1950s during two devastating multiyear droughts created by some mix of tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST variations and internal atmospheric variability and, for the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, dust aerosol forcing ( Schubert et al. 2004

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Eric F. Wood, Siegfried D. Schubert, Andrew W. Wood, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kingtse C. Mo, Annarita Mariotti, and Roger S. Pulwarty

that variability including such phenomena as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and summertime extratropical stationary Rossby waves. The papers also draw attention to the lack of operational skill for precipitation in summer and suggest that this deserves more attention to assess if progress can be made, for example, by better exploiting antecedent soil moisture conditions as well as large-scale atmospheric variability to improve forecast skill at subseasonal time scales. Results from the current

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Xing Yuan, Eric F. Wood, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Justin Sheffield, Jonghun Kam, Miaoling Liang, and Kaiyu Guan

drought events, and reducing the possibility of humanitarian crises ( Pozzi et al. 2013 ). The major source of seasonal forecast predictability comes from the ocean, and the strongest signal is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As the easterly trade winds weaken, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific increase. This alters the Walker circulation and the convection zone in the tropics, affecting the climate in midlatitudes and high latitudes through Rossby wave trains

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Bart Nijssen, Shraddhanand Shukla, Chiyu Lin, Huilin Gao, Tian Zhou, Ishottama, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

1. Introduction Smith and Katz (2013) report that during the period 1980–2011, droughts and heat waves ranked only behind tropical cyclones in the cost of damages associated with weather and climate disasters in the United States that individually caused more than a billion dollars worth of damage. This estimate did not include the 2012 drought, which covered much of the central United States. While the absolute magnitude of the economic losses is greatest in the developed world, the relative

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Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Infiltration Capacity (VIC) 4.0.6 ( Liang et al. 1994 ), Noah 2.8 ( Koren et al. 1999 ; Ek et al. 2003 ), Sacramento/SNOW-17 (SAC) ( Burnash et al. 1973 ; Anderson 1973 ), and the Community Land Model 3.5 (CLM3.5; Oleson et al. 2007 ). Model descriptions and properties can be found in Wang et al. (2009) . 2) The NCEP system Precipitation forcing for the NCEP system was derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified precipitation analysis

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Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jason Otkin, Xiwu Zhan, Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, and Agustin Pimstein

ALEXI period of record is currently limited to the MODIS era (2000 and following), but can be extended back to the early 1980s using VI data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) series flown by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and geostationary data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) B1 data rescue project ( Knapp 2008 ). Snow-covered regions have been masked using the 24-km resolution Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and

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Shahrbanou Madadgar and Hamid Moradkhani

of drought events in the globe, specifically in the United States. The Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), launched by National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), is a comprehensive database reporting damages caused by recent droughts within the United States. Reported by the North America Drought Monitor of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climate Data Center (NCDC; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/nadm/ ), droughts with an estimated damage of over 100

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