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Charles D. Koven, William J. Riley, and Alex Stern

forcing by 2100, respectively, and thus represent low, intermediate, and high warming scenarios ( Taylor et al. 2009 ). We examine the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate relevant aspects of the currently frozen soil thermal dynamics and how these dynamics may change under the set of warming experiments. While many such numerical experiments have been conducted using regional permafrost models forced by atmospheric dynamics, it is useful to look to this large, state-of-the-art sample of ESMs

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A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, M. Kidston, L. Bopp, P. Ciais, P. Cox, C. Jones, M. Jung, R. Myneni, and Z. Zhu

we summarize the physical and biogeochemical model's performances for the historical experiment only (i.e., ESMs driven by CO 2 concentration). Among all the available CMIP5 ESMs, we only selected the models simulating both the land and ocean carbon fluxes and reporting enough variables for our analysis. The models used in this study, as well as their atmospheric and ocean grids and complete expansions, are listed in Table 1 ; note that all the diagnostics and statistics are computed after

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