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and extratropics (e.g., Schubert et al. 2002 ; Waliser et al. 2003a ). Most of the dominant convective tropical intraseasonal modes are solutions of the shallow water model ( Matsuno 1966 ), with a modified equivalent depth ( WK ). These so-called convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) include Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG), eastward inertio-gravity (EIG), and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves ( Takayabu 1994 ; WK ; Kiladis et al. 2009 ). In addition to
and extratropics (e.g., Schubert et al. 2002 ; Waliser et al. 2003a ). Most of the dominant convective tropical intraseasonal modes are solutions of the shallow water model ( Matsuno 1966 ), with a modified equivalent depth ( WK ). These so-called convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) include Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG), eastward inertio-gravity (EIG), and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves ( Takayabu 1994 ; WK ; Kiladis et al. 2009 ). In addition to
of the atmospheric components of CGCMs in setting the dynamics of ENSO and its teleconnections ( Guilyardi et al. 2004 , 2009a ; Lloyd et al. 2009 ; Sun et al. 2009 ; Weare 2013 ), as well as how ENSO will behave under climate change ( Collins et al. 2010 ). The precipitation response to interannual climate variations like ENSO also continues to be a challenge for CGCMs ( Dai 2006 ). In the tropics, equatorial wave dynamics spread tropospheric temperature anomalies, which induce feedbacks
of the atmospheric components of CGCMs in setting the dynamics of ENSO and its teleconnections ( Guilyardi et al. 2004 , 2009a ; Lloyd et al. 2009 ; Sun et al. 2009 ; Weare 2013 ), as well as how ENSO will behave under climate change ( Collins et al. 2010 ). The precipitation response to interannual climate variations like ENSO also continues to be a challenge for CGCMs ( Dai 2006 ). In the tropics, equatorial wave dynamics spread tropospheric temperature anomalies, which induce feedbacks
; Bonsal et al. 2011 ; Seager et al. 2012 ). This research identifies atmospheric processes important to northeast-region warm-season precipitation on interannual time scales and performs an initial case study examining the ability of the coupled climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ( Taylor et al. 2012 ) to simulate these processes using a subset of five models: CanESM2, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, and MIROC5 ( Table 1
; Bonsal et al. 2011 ; Seager et al. 2012 ). This research identifies atmospheric processes important to northeast-region warm-season precipitation on interannual time scales and performs an initial case study examining the ability of the coupled climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ( Taylor et al. 2012 ) to simulate these processes using a subset of five models: CanESM2, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, and MIROC5 ( Table 1
). Global and limited-area model simulations have been conducted in the past to evaluate the representation of the NAMS and the results show a wide range of model ability. Arritt et al. (2000) demonstrated that the Met Office (UKMO) HadCM2 global model could simulate generally realistic NAMS circulation and precipitation, whereas Yang et al. (2001) showed that the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CCM3 global model was unable to simulate these NAMS features. Liang et al. (2008) found
). Global and limited-area model simulations have been conducted in the past to evaluate the representation of the NAMS and the results show a wide range of model ability. Arritt et al. (2000) demonstrated that the Met Office (UKMO) HadCM2 global model could simulate generally realistic NAMS circulation and precipitation, whereas Yang et al. (2001) showed that the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CCM3 global model was unable to simulate these NAMS features. Liang et al. (2008) found
, J. Hafner , and J. Shaman , 2013 : Remote forcing versus local feedback of east Pacific intraseasonal variability . J. Climate , in press . Serra , Y. L. , G. N. Kiladis , and K. I. Hodges , 2010 : Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the Intra-Americas Sea . J. Climate , 23 , 4823 – 4840 , doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3223.1 . Slingo , J. M. , and Coauthors , 1996 : Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP
, J. Hafner , and J. Shaman , 2013 : Remote forcing versus local feedback of east Pacific intraseasonal variability . J. Climate , in press . Serra , Y. L. , G. N. Kiladis , and K. I. Hodges , 2010 : Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the Intra-Americas Sea . J. Climate , 23 , 4823 – 4840 , doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3223.1 . Slingo , J. M. , and Coauthors , 1996 : Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP
and Vecchi 2012 , 2013 ). The most recent version of a Japanese model [Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM)] with 20-km resolution is able to simulate intense Category 4 and 5 TCs ( Murakami et al. 2012b ). As low-resolution climate models are better able to simulate the large-scale environmental, rather than individual, storms, one attractive approach is to analyze large-scale variables known to be associated with TC activity, instead of model TCs
and Vecchi 2012 , 2013 ). The most recent version of a Japanese model [Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM)] with 20-km resolution is able to simulate intense Category 4 and 5 TCs ( Murakami et al. 2012b ). As low-resolution climate models are better able to simulate the large-scale environmental, rather than individual, storms, one attractive approach is to analyze large-scale variables known to be associated with TC activity, instead of model TCs
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and other global, regional, and national assessments. The goal of this study is to provide a broad evaluation of CMIP5 models in their depiction of North American climate variability. It draws from individual work by investigators within the CMIP5 Task Force of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program (MAPP) and is part of a Journal of Climate special collection on
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and other global, regional, and national assessments. The goal of this study is to provide a broad evaluation of CMIP5 models in their depiction of North American climate variability. It draws from individual work by investigators within the CMIP5 Task Force of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program (MAPP) and is part of a Journal of Climate special collection on
and Robbins 2011 ; Wehner et al. 2011 ). A general increase in heat waves, decrease in cold extremes, decrease in frost days, and increase in length of the growing season have been projected across large portions of NA ( Meehl and Tebaldi 2004 ; Diffenbaugh et al. 2005 ; Biasutti et al. 2012 ; Christiansen et al. 2011 ; Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 ; Duffy and Tebaldi 2012 ; Lau and Nath 2012 ), projected trends that are generally consistent with observed trends in such quantities over the
and Robbins 2011 ; Wehner et al. 2011 ). A general increase in heat waves, decrease in cold extremes, decrease in frost days, and increase in length of the growing season have been projected across large portions of NA ( Meehl and Tebaldi 2004 ; Diffenbaugh et al. 2005 ; Biasutti et al. 2012 ; Christiansen et al. 2011 ; Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 ; Duffy and Tebaldi 2012 ; Lau and Nath 2012 ), projected trends that are generally consistent with observed trends in such quantities over the
at daily to seasonal time scales, as well as selected climate features that have regional importance. Part II covers aspects of climate variability, such as intraseasonal variability in the tropical Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which play major roles in driving North American climate variability. This study draws from individual work by investigators within the CMIP5 Task Force of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
at daily to seasonal time scales, as well as selected climate features that have regional importance. Part II covers aspects of climate variability, such as intraseasonal variability in the tropical Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which play major roles in driving North American climate variability. This study draws from individual work by investigators within the CMIP5 Task Force of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
European heat wave (e.g., Stott et al. 2004 ). Other important aspects of global climate, for example, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclones, have not exhibited a detectable change ( Hegerl et al. 2007 ). Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) is among the most important indicators of global climate variability and change. An increase in global temperature should cause a decline in total snow cover extent given the 0°C-threshold response of snow formation and melt. However
European heat wave (e.g., Stott et al. 2004 ). Other important aspects of global climate, for example, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclones, have not exhibited a detectable change ( Hegerl et al. 2007 ). Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover extent (SCE) is among the most important indicators of global climate variability and change. An increase in global temperature should cause a decline in total snow cover extent given the 0°C-threshold response of snow formation and melt. However
