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William A. Komaromi, Sharanya J. Majumdar, and Eric D. Rappin

Single-Moment (WSM) six-class microphysics ( Dudhia et al. 2008 ), and the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) boundary layer scheme ( Mellor and Yamada 1982 ; Janjić 1990 ). A second-order diffusion scheme is employed, and no damping is used. Several global models were initially examined for use as initial and boundary conditions. An intercomparison between the 2008 versions of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric

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Sharanya J. Majumdar, Kathryn J. Sellwood, Daniel Hodyss, Zoltan Toth, and Yucheng Song

observations on medium-range forecasts of atmospheric flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 134 , 2011 – 2027 . Simmons , A. J. , and B. J. Hoskins , 1979 : The downstream and upstream development of unstable baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci. , 36 , 1239 – 1254 . Szunyogh , I. , Z. Toth , A. V. Zimin , S. J. Majumdar , and A. Persson , 2002 : On the propagation of the effect of targeted observations: The 2000 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 130 , 2803

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Warren J. Tennant, Glenn J. Shutts, Alberto Arribas, and Simon A. Thompson

improvements to the atmospheric observing system, increased computing power, and more sophisticated models, the development of operational EPS suites took place at, inter alia, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; Toth and Kalnay 1993 ), the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC; Houtekamer et al. 1996 ), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Buizza and Palmer 1995 ; Molteni et al. 1996 ). Some centers focused on estimating uncertainty in initial

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Munehiko Yamaguchi and Sharanya J. Majumdar

perturbations around Sinlaku, and section 3b shows how the steering flow and symmetric and asymmetric winds are modified by the perturbations. Sections 4a – c illustrate the dynamical mechanisms of the perturbation growth by the ECMWF ensemble from a perspective of the baroclinic energy conversion in a vortex, the baroclinic energy conversion associated with the midlatitude waves, and the barotropic energy conversion in a vortex. Section 4d shows statistical verification results regarding the

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John E. Janowiak, Peter Bauer, Wanqiu Wang, Phillip A. Arkin, and Jon Gottschalck

operational forecasting system is an atmosphere-only model that comprises a hydrostatic (spectral) global atmospheric and wave modeling system that is initialized with analyses that are produced by a four-dimensional variational assimilation scheme. Since February 2006, the global operational model is run with a wavenumber truncation of 799 (T799) that corresponds to a spatial resolution of 25 km with 91 model levels in the vertical (model top at 0.01 hPa). During the period 2007–08, selected upgrades to

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Thomas M. Hamill, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, Michael Fiorino, and Stanley G. Benjamin

. Meanwhile, improving the accuracy of intensity forecasts has proven much more difficult ( Bender and Ginis 2000 ; Krishnamurti et al. 2005 ; Rogers et al. 2006 ; Li and Pu 2008 ; Rappaport et al. 2009 ). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP; see online at ) was initiated to 1) improve the accuracy and reliability of hurricane forecasts, 2) extend the forecast lead time for

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