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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

rotation and the sphericity of Earth [for an introductory-level text on Rossby waves see Rhines (2002) ]. Rossby waves are in distinct contrast to other types of waves such as gravity waves or sound waves, which rely on gravity or the compressibility of air, respectively, for their basic restoring mechanism. The atmospheric general circulation cannot be understood without reference to Rossby waves because they transfer energy, moisture, and momentum across large distances. This can generate

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 41 , 2979 – 2987 , doi: 10.1002/2014GL059282 . 10.1002/2014GL059282 Grazzini , F. , and G. van der Grijn , 2002 : Central European floods during summer 2002. ECMWF Newsletter , No. 96, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 18–28. Grazzini , F. , and F. Vitart , 2015 : Atmospheric predictability and Rossby wave packets . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 141 , 2793 – 2802 , doi: 10.1002/qj.2564 . 10.1002/qj.2564 Hoskins , B. J. , 1975 : The geostrophic momentum

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Marlene Baumgart, Michael Riemer, Volkmar Wirth, Franziska Teubler, and Simon T. K. Lang

analysis and deterministic forecast data from the Atmospheric Model high-resolution 10-day forecast (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Error growth is analyzed for the forecast starting at 0000 UTC 12 November 2013. 1 This forecast covers an extreme precipitation event over Sardinia on 18–19 November 2013, which was closely connected with the preceding Rossby wave packet, wave breaking, and the formation of a cutoff low. The error growth within this Rossby wave

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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

.1175/MWR-D-17-0219.1 Riboldi , J. , C. M. Grams , M. Riemer , and H. M. Archambault , 2019 : A phase locking perspective on Rossby wave amplification and atmospheric blocking downstream of recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 147 , 567 – 589 , . 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0271.1 Riemer , M. , and S. C. Jones , 2010 : The downstream impact of tropical cyclones on a developing baroclinic wave in idealized scenarios of

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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

1. Introduction Forecasting convective initiation more than a few hours in advance is an ongoing challenge in atmospheric research. The exact timing and location will probably not be forecast by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the near future, but forecasts of the probability of precipitation can show useful skill. Probabilistic forecasts aim to represent uncertainty that results from several sources of varying importance. The intrinsic uncertainty of a chaotic system like the

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Hilke S. Lentink, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Sarah C. Jones

Center “Waves to Weather” (TRR 165), project A4: “Evolution and predictability of storm structure during extratropical transition of tropical cyclones.” Observational data were obtained in the framework of T-PARC. We thank the international consortium that supported the T-PARC field campaign and acknowledge the involvement of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF)–sponsored National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) for data management and quality control

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