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Franziska Teubler and Michael Riemer

1. Introduction Rossby waves are a fundamental ingredient of atmospheric dynamics. For synoptic-scale Rossby waves, the strong gradient of potential vorticity (PV) associated with the midlatitude jet effectively constitutes the waveguide ( Platzman 1949 ; Schwierz et al. 2004 ; Martius et al. 2010 ). A local perturbation of this waveguide may lead to the formation of distinct wave packets (e.g., Simmons and Hoskins 1979 ; Hakim 2003 ; Riemer et al. 2008 ). The significance of such Rossby

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Olivia Martius and Heini Wernli

1. Introduction Upper-level westerly jet streams are ubiquitous and important features of the subtropical atmospheric flow. On relatively short time scales (up to a few days) these jets serve as waveguides for synoptic-scale Rossby waves, which in turn can trigger high impact weather events (e.g., Martius et al. 2008 ; Feldstein and Dayan 2008 ). With regard to the transport of chemical constituents, the subtropical jets can act as local barriers for meridional exchange (e.g., Shuckburgh et

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Michael Riemer, Marlene Baumgart, and Sven Eiermann

midlatitude, baroclinic Rossby wave trains (e.g., Harr and Dea 2009 ; Riemer and Jones 2010 ; Pantillon et al. 2013 ; Grams et al. 2013b ; Archambault et al. 2013 ). In an idealized ET scenario, Riemer and Jones (2010) identified the modification of the downstream cyclogenesis as one important first step in the chain of events governing the downstream dispersion. Their result is consistent with the concept of downstream baroclinic development ( Orlanski and Sheldon 1995 ). In this study, we focus

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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

1. Introduction Forecasting convective initiation more than a few hours in advance is an ongoing challenge in atmospheric research. The exact timing and location will probably not be forecast by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the near future, but forecasts of the probability of precipitation can show useful skill. Probabilistic forecasts aim to represent uncertainty that results from several sources of varying importance. The intrinsic uncertainty of a chaotic system like the

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Simon T. K. Lang, Sarah C. Jones, Martin Leutbecher, Melinda S. Peng, and Carolyn A. Reynolds

the storm center. Yamaguchi and Majumdar (2010) investigated the growth of the initial-condition perturbations of different ensemble prediction systems with respect to TCs. They found that the perturbations of the ECMWF EPS grow because of barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions in a vortex and baroclinic energy conversion in midlatitude waves. To assess the utility of the SVs for observation targeting and for ensemble construction, it is important to elucidate the dynamical processes that

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