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A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, M. Kidston, L. Bopp, P. Ciais, P. Cox, C. Jones, M. Jung, R. Myneni, and Z. Zhu

1. Introduction Earth system models (ESMs) are complex numerical tools designed to simulate physical, chemical, and biological processes taking place on Earth between the atmosphere, the land, and the ocean. Worldwide, only a few research institutions have developed such models and used them to carry out historical and future simulations in order to project future climate change. ESMs, and numerical models in general, are never perfect. Consequently, before using their results to make future

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Charles D. Koven, William J. Riley, and Alex Stern

1. Introduction Permafrost is a critical component of high-latitude land and determines the character of the hydrology, ecology, and biogeochemistry of the region. There is widespread interest in the use of coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface models to predict the fate of permafrost over the next centuries because 1) permafrost contains the largest organic carbon (C) reservoir in the terrestrial system ( Tarnocai et al. 2009 ), 2) permafrost stability is primarily dependent on temperature

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