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Sharanya J. Majumdar, Kathryn J. Sellwood, Daniel Hodyss, Zoltan Toth, and Yucheng Song

data released over the northeastern Pacific Ocean on medium-range forecasts downstream. Using a 51-member European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble ( Buizza et al. 2003 ), they concluded that the ETKF is capable of discriminating between observation locations that are effective and ineffective for 3–6-day National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts of 200-hPa winds within a verification region based on Rossby wave dispersion

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William A. Komaromi, Sharanya J. Majumdar, and Eric D. Rappin

field is then adjusted via geostrophic balance, and the temperature is finally adjusted through hydrostatic balance. An example of the perturbed fields is illustrated in Fig. 1 . An upper-layer (500–200 hPa) negative vorticity perturbation of strength α max = −0.23 ( Fig. 1a ) is introduced in order to weaken a strong midlatitude short wave. The resulting modification to the vorticity field is local to the perturbation ( Fig. 1b ), with the largest vorticity perturbation value situated off center

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John E. Janowiak, Peter Bauer, Wanqiu Wang, Phillip A. Arkin, and Jon Gottschalck

are being implemented, instruments fail or are being replaced, and in the presence of radiative transfer model and interinstrument calibration biases. More details on ERA-Interim are available from Uppala et al. (2008) . d. NCEP Climate Forecast System The CFS is a coupled atmosphere–ocean model. The atmospheric component of the CFS is the 2003 version of the NCEP operational atmospheric GFS model with a spectral truncation of 62 waves (T62) in the horizontal (approximately

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Munehiko Yamaguchi and Sharanya J. Majumdar

perturbations around Sinlaku, and section 3b shows how the steering flow and symmetric and asymmetric winds are modified by the perturbations. Sections 4a – c illustrate the dynamical mechanisms of the perturbation growth by the ECMWF ensemble from a perspective of the baroclinic energy conversion in a vortex, the baroclinic energy conversion associated with the midlatitude waves, and the barotropic energy conversion in a vortex. Section 4d shows statistical verification results regarding the

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Warren J. Tennant, Glenn J. Shutts, Alberto Arribas, and Simon A. Thompson

. J. , 2008 : The forcing of large-scale waves in an explicit simulation of deep tropical convection . Dyn. Atmos. Oceans , 45 , 1 – 25 . Shutts , G. J. , and T. N. Palmer , 2007 : Convective forcing fluctuations in a cloud-resolving model: Relevance to the stochastic parameterization problem . J. Climate , 20 , 187 – 202 . Smagorinsky , J. , 1963 : General circulation experiments with the primitive equations. I: The basic experiment . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 91 , 99 – 164 . Toth , Z

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Thomas M. Hamill, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, Michael Fiorino, and Stanley G. Benjamin

. Meanwhile, improving the accuracy of intensity forecasts has proven much more difficult ( Bender and Ginis 2000 ; Krishnamurti et al. 2005 ; Rogers et al. 2006 ; Li and Pu 2008 ; Rappaport et al. 2009 ). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP; see online at ) was initiated to 1) improve the accuracy and reliability of hurricane forecasts, 2) extend the forecast lead time for

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