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Stefan Hagemann, Cui Chen, Jan O. Haerter, Jens Heinke, Dieter Gerten, and Claudio Piani

dataset covers the period 1958–2001 and is based on the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40; Uppala et al. 2005 ). The ERA-40 data were interpolated to 0.5° and only considered over land points using the land–sea mask from the Climate Research Unit dataset TS2.1 (CRU; Mitchell and Jones 2005 ). A correction for elevation differences between ERA-40 and CRU was applied. For 2-m temperatures, a correction of the monthly means with CRU data was performed

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Manuel Punzet, Frank Voß, Anja Voß, Ellen Kynast, and Ilona Bärlund

predict water temperatures as well. These deterministic models rely on a conceptual method based on thermal budget calculations, which requires demanding data inputs like air temperature, solar radiation, and evaporation. On the one hand, deterministic models are quite flexible in terms of input parameter modification, but on the other hand they are more complex in model development and data requirements than statistical/stochastic models ( Benyahya et al. 2008 ; Guillemette et al. 2008 ). Models of

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