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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

-scale flow, in particular errors related to latent heat release. Accordingly, an adequate representation of WCBs could reduce systematic forecast errors in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale flow. The only study so far toward a systematic evaluation of WCBs is provided by Madonna et al. (2015) , who investigated operational medium-range European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) forecasts for the three Northern Hemisphere winters of 2002/03, 2006

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