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Victoria Reyes-García, Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, Maximilien Guèze, and Sandrine Gallois

observations, farmers would delay potato planting to reduce crop damage. The novelty of the study lied in contrasting folk observations with scientific records. Climatologists had previously determined that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events influence rainfall in the Andes but had not realized that ENSO events also affected stellar visibility in June (most likely caused by the presence of thin cirrus clouds obscuring them). Conversely, Andean farmers, drawing on careful long-term observations, and

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Alan K. Betts

that the shrinking of the cold season seen in Vermont is part of the much larger warming trend at northern latitudes, driven by the same climate feedback processes ( Screen and Simmonds 2010 ; Betts 2011 ). Year-to-year variability is likely to continue to be large. The northern hemispheric winter (2009–10) was exceptional, with the Arctic Oscillation, related to the strength of the northern polar vortex, in an extreme negative phase ( Hansen et al. 2010 ). Indeed, one important caveat is that the

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Thomas W. Corringham and Daniel R. Cayan

conclusions is difficult due to the lack of consistent data on flood damages and exposure ( Changnon 2003 ), although the increase in damages in the United States appears to be driven largely by increased exposure (i.e., increased population and wealth in areas at risk of flooding) ( Klotzbach et al. 2018 ; Downton et al. 2005 ; Pielke et al. 2002 ; Changnon et al. 2000 ). An established body of climate research demonstrates the effects of large-scale atmospheric–oceanic oscillations on hydrologic

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Melanie M. Colavito, Sarah F. Trainor, Nathan P. Kettle, and Alison York

’s activities are relevant, and participates in AFSC activities. AFSC engagement with AWFCG further ensures that its activities meet management research needs. In addition to its partnership with ACCAP and other boundary organizations, AFSC participates in national Arctic and wildfire-related research initiatives, such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. AFSC staff also participate in scientific meetings and engage with visiting scientists. c

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Avital Li and James Ford

– 196 , https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01118 . 10.3354/cr01118 Ford , J. D. , B. Smit , and J. Wandel , 2006 : Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic: A case study from Arctic Bay, Canada . Global Environ. Change , 16 , 145 – 160 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.11.007 . 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.11.007 Ford , J. D. , W. Vanderbilt , and L. Berrang-Ford , 2012 : Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII

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Amanda H. Lynch and Ronald D. Brunner

effects, with or without outside assistance. This is one possible manifestation of factoring a large complex problem into smaller ones, more amenable to decentralized decision-making and procedurally rational policy processes. The Pacific ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) Applications Climate (PEAC) Center presents one example of this experience. 3. The PEAC Center ENSO is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that occurs on a time scale of about 4–7 years. It is manifest most clearly in surface temperature

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Tamara U. Wall, Alison M. Meadow, and Alexandra Horganic

(political, social, cultural, historical, and environmental), and outcomes (accountability, capacity building, emergent knowledge, recognized impacts, social learning, and transparency). A key finding from their test of the model was that impacts often take a long time to emerge, and simply evaluating at the end of a project is insufficient. Armitage et al. (2011) identified five following dimensions of coproduction of knowledge within marine mammal comanagement frameworks in the Arctic and empirical

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Samuel J. Childs and Russ S. Schumacher

). While there are likely many factors that influenced the enhanced activity, it should be noted that the winter of 2016/17 was characterized by a weak La Niña and a positive-phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), two conditions that have been shown to promote elevated wintertime tornado counts ( Cook and Schaefer 2008 ; Allen et al. 2015 ; Childs et al. 2018 ). In all, four events were sampled throughout the study period, and Fig. 3 shows the associated tornado tracks and EF-scale ratings. November 2016

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Piotr Matczak, Dariusz Graczyk, Adam Choryński, Iwona Pińskwar, and Viktoria Takacs

). The accuracy of weather and climate-related local knowledge was tested for Arctic communities ( Gearheard et al. 2010 ; Huntington et al. 2004 ; Laidler 2006 ), Kenyan farmers ( Leclerc et al. 2013 ), and traditional communities from Indonesian villages ( Boissière et al. 2013 ). The studies generally revealed a high degree of TK accuracy. In this study, we examine how much the TK represented in proverbs on climatic and weather phenomena actually reflects meteorological patterns. Proverbs serve

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Maria Carmen Lemos, Christine J. Kirchhoff, Scott E. Kalafatis, Donald Scavia, and Richard B. Rood

change toward the role of high-variability processes such as the Arctic Oscillation, which is the largest statistical predictor of persistent extreme weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere ( Carbone and Dow 2005 ). The focus on variability of extreme weather was indicative of the workshop participants’ growing focus on adaptive management. Rather than viewing climate change as a straightforward progression of changes, participants considered the complex interaction of the dynamic climate system

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